England v New Zealand First Test Tips: Unripe Kiwis to be picked off

England v New Zealand
Thursday 2 June 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New era for hosts

Red-ball re-set take two. This actually does feel like a new broom. Ben Stokes takes over from Joe Root as captain. Brendon McCullum comes in as coach.

And with those bold, if not dangerously similar appointments, come some decisions which could be either masterstrokes or more of the same. Ollie Pope batting at No 3 is a risk. Matthew Potts, on debut as a seamer, at No 8 is punchy.

With so many of England's fast-bowling stock injured, Stuart Broad and James Anderson are paired once again after their recall.

The biggest decision for McCullum may have been with the wicketkeeper. Jonny Bairstow or Ben Foakes? Well, McCullum has gone fir Foakes but with Bairstow at No 5. That means Harry Brook misses out

Named XI: Crawley, Lees, Pope, Root, Bairstow, Stokes, Foakes, Potts Leach, Broad, Anderson

Kiwis have struggled

New Zealand are the world champions. But they come into the game with concerns that they are undercooked. Kane Williamson, Devon Conway, Daryll Mitchell and Trent Boult have arrived late from the Indian Premier League.

And they looked like a half-ready team when succumbing to defeat by the County Select XI. As it happens Boult is unlikely to be fit for game one. Henry Nicholls, the middle-order batter, is also a doubt.

It means that from Nos 3-5 they will potentially line-up versus a boomeranging red-ball against the best in the business with three players who have been playing smash and grab under the lights with a white ball in India. Good luck to them.

There are no worries about their bowling, even if Boult doesn't make it. Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Kyle Jamieson and Matt Henry is superior to anything the hosts can produce.

Probable XI: Latham, Young, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, De Grandhomme, Jamieson, Southee, Wagner, Henry, Patel

Pitch report

Lord's is all about surviving the first hour or so relatively unscathed. The first-innings scores in the last seven read: 364-378- 258- 85-107-184-123. You don't need to be an analysts to work out who managed it.
Last summer England were duffed up by India who batted first. And New Zealand preceded them with a solid first-dig score in a stalemate.

Currently the forecast is good. There is rain forecast for only day four. Cloud cover on every other day suggests the bowlers will be raring to go every morning.

Sportsbook go 5/6 that both teams score 250 and 6/4 both for 300. Bet with Sportsbook hereWe're nervous about such prices. We're leaning towards shorting the runs par lines on the exchange if we can get early 300s, regardless of who is batting. Both units look flaky.

England's best chance

England are 2.3811/8, New Zealand are 3.4012/5 and the draw is the same. Ordinarily that price on the Kiwis would be labelled 'bet of the year'.

Not this time, though. We're not happy with their preparation and they will be much more in tune for wins at Trent Bridge and Leeds in the games that follow.

That's not to say that if they bowl first and get good movement, England, two wins in 17 don't forget and a batting mentality to fold like origami, are scuttled.

Yet for some time we have suspected that the McCullum effect will never be stronger than in his first game.

With Broad and Anderson roaring in, England have a rare chance to beat a quality side who bested them only a year ago.

If you want to be really smart, keeping both teams on side and booking a lay of the draw, which is shortening rapidly, at 3.002/1, is solid. There have been two draws in the last eight. Bet here

Tops value

Joe Root and Kane Williamson have been boosted for top England Kiwi bat respectively by Sports-book at 21/10 and 3/1. New skip Stokes gets a 4/1 quote. Will Young should be popular at a chunky 6/1 for honours for the visitors because of his experience in English conditions, although the 9/4 that he manages a first-innings fifty is shrewder. Bet with Sportsbook here

**Read Ed's in-play analysis after every day of the first Test

What the data says on tours post IPL. This week on Cricket...Only Bettor