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Saturday 11 July, 17:30
TV: Sky Sports
England v India fifth T20 team news
England have an unassailable lead with a 3-0 scoreline and one to play. The temptation, however, to keep a winning team together should surely be resisted. At some stage they have to find out about fringe players and this is the perfect opportunity.
The first change they might make is replacing Jos Buttler in the opening slot and moving Tom Banton up. This would allow them to have a look at Jordan Cox in the middle order. James Coles, the thrusting all-rounder, is another option but he was released from the squad to play Blast so his status is unclear.
It would make sense if Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue were both rested. Their workloads need to be managed. A return for Saqib Mahmood would seem fair. Luke Wood might get another chance after a disappointing World Cup.
Possible XI: Salt, Banton, Brook, Bethell, Cox, Jacks, S Curran, Rehan, L Wood, Rashid, Mahmood
India have lost five T20i in a row for the first time in their history. Defeat in Bristol did nothing to allay fears that this was an unhappy camp.
They got off to the perfect start in Bristol when winning the toss on what looked like a road, with short boundaries and the sun blazing. Bliss. But they made extremely hard work of runmaking and could muster just 158. One would have been forgiven for thinking this was a Bristol pitch of yore when Mike Smith, Ian Harvey and Martyn Ball would squeeze the life out of teams for the glorious Gloucestershire List A team
But no. England rattled to the target inside 14 overs, which suggested that India should have been posting upwards of 200.
Despite defeat we don't expect many changes. Washington Sundar came in for Harshit Rana but Axar Patel still looks vulnerable. Batting all-rounder Suryansh Shedge may replace him. Varun Chakravarthy was left out for death expert Prasidh Krishna.
Possible XI: Abhishek, Sooryavanshi, Ishan, Shreyas, Tilak, Sundar, Dube, Shedge, Arshdeep, Prince, Prasidh
England v India fifth T20 pitch report
There have been four T20i played at Southampton in the last five years, spanning 2022-2025. The runs per over mark is 9.2, which confirms a reputation as a road. There's further evidence. All four of those matches have been won by the side batting first. The first-innings scores in the study period read (most recent first): 248-179-191-198. Scoreboard pressure is alive and well in Southampton.
Last summer, England amassed 248 against West Indies, who returned fire with 211. There were an incredible 29 sixes hit in that game. The 5/61.84 for over 17.5 sixes might be too low from Sportsbook.
However, the big caveat in this game is...India. It's all very well and good having a clear strategy available to us thanks to the data telling us to expect a road. But to wager on that we need to have two teams who are playing fair and true. England, we have no issue with. But India are a problem.
Take Bristol as an example. We knew it was going to be a road. England proved it. Yet they were prevented from truly showing that in the context of winning wagers because India were not at it. Total England sixes, for example, should have trotted up but India just weren't competitive. Total runs another.
Playing both teams to score 200, 210 or even 220 would be a strong option for this ground. But can we trust India to do their part? Probably not. So our best approach is hope that England bat first and we start hitting those extreme overs on the runs lines on the Exchange. Plan for overs 220-240.
England v India fifth T20 match prediction
The world champions losing five games in a row, with two of those against Ireland, seemed inconceivable at the start of this our. As stated, it has never happened before. So one more can't do much more harm, can it?
India look disjointed, disrupted and disturbed. These pages have mentioned previously about the shabby treatement of senior players (and winners) and there seems little appetite for the fight.
England are the right favourites, of course. but you knew that. They lead 3-0, after all.
Finding a new angle for England dominance is the job at hand. And Sportsbook's 9/25.50 that England win, hit most 6s and 4s might just be the ticket.
Back England win, most 6s & most 4s
England v India fifth T20 player bets
Player wagers should also try to keep onside another Indian letdown. So the focus should be on an England openers. Phil Salt looks certain to play. He has been seeing the ball very nicely indeed. Sportsbook offer 11/82.38 that he scores 30. With this wager we won't have concerns about a low India total. An alternative is to hit Harry Brook's sixes line at two or more at a tasty 13/82.63. At No 3 it is a bit of a risk but Jos Buttler does seem to have hit the wall now (one win in 21 on top bats) so Brook should get the opportunity for another blockbuester knock. He was in confident mood in Bristol.