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Heat short favourites
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Two top bat wagers
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Stoinis could return
Brisbane Heat v Melbourne Stars
Sunday 22 January, 02:40
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Team news
Heat, for the first time in yonks, are running hot. They have won three on the bounce thanks to Michael Neser's extraordinary efforts with the ball.
Neser has eight wickets in those last three games as Heat have hit upon a method. They're playing to their strengths, perhaps knowing that trying to blast away teams with a circumspect batting line-up doesn't make sense. They then fight with all their might in the field, notably defending 162 against Hobart on Friday.
Probable XI: Brown, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Renshaw, Hain, Peirson, Neser, Bazley, Kuhnemann, Johnson, Swepson
It is possible that Stars gave up this term when they lost Glenn Maxwell to a broken leg. Certainly they checked out when allowing Marcus Stoinis to join the ILT20. A hamstring injury actually robbed them of Stoinis much earlier and they're now just waiting for the misery to end.
Stoinis was available to play in their last outing (against Heat incidentally) but he wasn't picked. If he does play here then James Seymour may make way.
Possible XI: Clarke, Rogers, Cartwright, Webster, Stoinis, Larkin, Coulter-Nile, Hinchcliffe, Wood, Hatcher, Zampa
Pitch report
We surmised that Heat's 155 against Perth on this Gabba track was worth 160-odd against another team. Well, they made 162 against Hobart on Friday. Against a weak attack they should have gone for more but that doesn't appear to be Heat's style as we said.
We wouldn't trust Stars to bowl with much effort to go unders if Heat bat first, but trusting the home attack is a much simpler affair. Stars could struggle for that 160 figure.
How to play
There's plenty of admiration around for Heat's comeback but we're not dumb. There's no need to be betting them at 1.774/5. Cripes, that's the sort of price we've betted Perth and Sixers at in the last week.
The market obviously reckons Stars have checked out. And that's fine. Instead of betting pre-toss we'll look for an in-play wager, perhaps taking closer to even money that Heat can defend a low 160 score. Neser is 11/4 to take most Heat wickets.
Tops value
Stoinis gets a 7/2 quote to top score for Stars with Sportsbook. He averages a meaty 53 against the probable attack listed above. But he has a rival in Hilton Cartwright who should bat at No 3. He doesn't have an average because that collection haven't got him out in 41 balls. He is 4/1.
Khawaja averages 26 using the same stats method for Heat. He is boosted to 10/3, the same price as Matt Renshaw who has an impressive mark of 36.7. With Renshaw down at No 4 the shrewder move would be to bet the guy guaranteed to get in.