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Trinbago on brink of top-two finish
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Nyeem young a follow at 80s
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Guyana form has collpased
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Kings clear value
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Paul & Motie opening options
Barbados Royals v Trinbago Knight Riders
Saturday 13 September, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT
Barbados Royals v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips
Trinbago's grip on a top-two spot has tightened despite consecutive losses. Guyana's collapse at home has meant that a win in this game means they are guaranteed an easier route to the final.
And they should get it against a Royals team who have nothing to play for after seven defeats in eight. They lost by one run to Patriots on Friday, failing to chase 151. This despite a strong platform built by Brandon King. But too many big-time players had slow-time displays; Quinton de Kock, Rassie van der Dussen and Rovman Powell all produced snail-like efforts and ate up deliveries.
It was a surprise because the Bridgetown surface had previously had a wonderful sheen and it looked a good batting track. But spin and pace off proved key. That will likely encourage a Trinbago team who are well-versed in in dealing with such conditions, Akeal Hosein, Andre Russell, Usman Tariq and Sunil Narine should be too canny for the Royals batting, which is prone to losing impetus. The match odds market agrees with an early show installing TKR as 1.501/2 favourites.
The Royals runs, therefore, may be a short at unders 160.5 at 5/61.84 with Betfair Sportsbook. With nothing to play it could be a flat performance. There is also the chance of testing bench strength.
It could pay to return to Nyeem Young as big-priced top-bat option. As stated before on these pages, Nyeem has a win in this market and tournament before and is a useful bowling all-rounder. The 80/181.00 looks too big and we'd have him in the 30s. Money back if he doesn't play.
Nic Pooran has been a major disappointment for top-bat backers as he has failed to find his hit-rate of the last two years. The 11/43.75 feels skinny and hasn't taken form into account. Andre Russell might be an option at this late stage on a slower surface at 9s.
Back Nyeem Young top Royals bat
Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings
Saturday 13 September, 16:00
TV: Live on TNT
Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Lucia Kings CPL Tips
Guyana have probably blown their chances of finishing in the top two. In the box seat with three wins needed from their last four at fortress Providence to guarantee to avoid the early eliminator, they lost back-to-back to Patriots and then Falcons. Clearly they are a spent force.
There is a small chance with that whopping defeats in their last two against Kings and Royals they could miss out altogether but that would be extraordinary. If they were to win their last two they could still make it into the top two with this being Kings' last match. But the signs are not good.
Against the Patriots their batting never got going in a chase of 150. They were even worse against Falcons, flopping completely to post just 99. That was a sore one to take for us and we had backed Quentin Sampson at 75s for top bat and his 19 was beaten by Shai Hope's 26.
Warriors may be so panicked by their batting that they make changes to the order. And Sampson remains an option to be tried as opener with Moeen Ali stinking the place out. The value on Sampson has gone, alas, with Sportsbook cutting him to 17s. But that brings Keemo Paul to our attention at 22/123.00 and Gudakesh Motie at 30/131.00. Both have opened in the past. Indeed, Motie was tried earlier in this tournament.
The standout bet, however, appears to be Kings on the match odds. If we're right about the crisis of confidence in the Guyana camp the 2.1011/10 looks very big indeed. Yes, we are ware of Guyana's brilliant record on their home turf but it wasn't much in evidence against supposedly inferior sides in the last two.
Kings have a great opportunity to nail a first-placed finish and they appear to have been underrated. We would have had this as a choice affair so it is straightforward to get involved.
Back St Lucia Kings