Big Bash Tips Matches Seven and Eight: Can Renegades capitalise on fast start?

• Sixers in need of a win

• Dominant in the Sydney Smash

• Showground improved for batters

• Dwarshuis another top bowler bet

• Behrendorff and Ellis bets

• Renegades get balance right

Syndey Thunder v Sydney Sixers
Saturday 20 December, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Sydney Thunder v Sydney Sixers Big Bash tips

Two games in and two defeats, Sixers find themselves gripped by something of a mini crisis. The pre-tournament second favourites are threatened by one of their worst ever starts and another loss in the Sydney Smash will put aspirations of an all-important top-two finish in the freezer.

They are marginal favourites to get their first win at 1.9210/11, a big price for the derby match that they have dominated. They have won seven of the last eight.

Sixers have yet to settle. Babar Azam looks unsure at the top of the order but otherwise they look strong. Hayden Kerr, an all-rounder, was batting at No 9 in the loss to Adelaide Strikers. They do need Sean Abbott back fit but this game could come too soon.

Thunder have an injury doubt over David Warner, who injured his back playing with his kids on the beach. He would require an injection to play and it may be that they don't rush him back so early in the season. Sam Konstas or Oliver Davies would probably miss out. 

Thunder were beaten by Hurricanes in their opener, failing to defend to defend 180. They took it to the last over which was an admirable effort considering the defending champions were absolutely cruising at one stage.

The contest takes place at Sydney Showground which has historically been one for the bowlers. Up until last season at least. Previously only four in 14 first-innings had busted 160 but it looked much better to bat on in 2025 with scores of 169, 194, 220 and 151. Sportsbook's 10/111.91 of over Thunder match runs at 151.5 could be cheap.

Ben Dwarshuis is our top-rated bet. He is an 11/43.75 chance for top Sixers bowler. He wins at a rate of 30% in the last two years and with Abbott most likely absent, there is little to beat. Between them, the two have won the market 70% of the time in the study period.

Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes
Sunday 21 December, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes Big Bash tips

Renegades produced the performance of the early skirmishes of this season's Bash by taking down Brisbane Heat in their opener. They amassed 212 for five with Tim Seifert smashing a century.

The omens looked good for Renegades when they realised that Seifert was an opening bat having previously used him in the middle order. He was unleashed to do maximum damage. Even though Heat had a sniff of an unlikely win, pacers Jason Behrendorff and Fergus O'Neill gave Renegades decent balance and threat.

They should get stronger, too. Adam Zampa is due to come back into the XI. They remain without Tom Rogers, another key pacer, who is out until early next month. But the signs for progress are clearly there. They do need Mohammad Rizwan to settle quickly, however.

Behrendorff is the standout wager. He arrived with a 31% win rate on top bowler. Sportsbook make him a 7/24.50 chance which is way out of kilter. He should be favourite.

For Hurricanes, another top bowler bet appeals. Nathan Ellis is in the win zone having drawn two blanks in a 1/1 start for the 'Canes. Ellis is the right favourite but 16/54.20 is generous on how often he wins.

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