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Thursday 24 September, 09.00
TV: Sky Sports
South Africa v Australia first ODI team news
South Africa are not at full strength with their bowling group. Far from it in fact. Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Nandre Burger, Kwena Maphaka and Ottneil Baartman are not available. So it has very much third-string feel to it.
Lizaad Williams and Gerald Coetzee seem certain to play, then, with Marco Jansen the attack leader. Jansen's brother is also in the squad but it would be a surprise if they went with two left-armers. Keshav Maharaj will be the chief spinner. Corbin Bosch is the fulcrum as the all-rounder.
There's no Aiden Markram, either, which is another blow. But Tony de Zpoorzi coming in to the top order as a replacement is not too shabby. Temba Bavuma will lead. Matthew Breetzke is their coming man and has numbers which put him among the elite in recent months.
Possible XI: Rickleton, De Kock, De Zorzi, Bavuma, Breetzke, Stubbs, M Jansen, C Bosch, Coetzee, Maharaj, Williams
Australia are at full-strength as they ratchet up preparations to defend their World Cup crown. The big guns are back with pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc available after sitting out the 3-0 win over Zimbabwe.
That wasn't a hugely impressive performance in that series and there are still many wondering precisely how Zimbabwe didn't win the final match.
The main selection conundrum is likely to focus on whether Cameron green comes back in for Oliver Peake, the spin-bowling all-rounder. The call may be pitch dependant. If Australia think the surface will take more seam then green will get the nod considering Cooper Connolly, Matt Renshaw and Travis head are also spin options.
Possible XI: Head, Marsh, Connolly, Inglis, Carey, Renshaw, Peake/Green , Cummins, Starc, Zampa, Hazlewood
South Africa v Australia first ODI pitch report
There has not been an ODI at Kingsmead since 2020 and that was washed out. Previously, though, there is a hint for bat-dominated contests. Three of the five before that saw 300-plus busted and considering they all pre-dated 2020 when batters were not as dominant it is fair to reckon it can be flat.
The average first-innings score in the last ten, for the record, is 259. There is a toss bias in that study with 67% won by the chaser. The overheads can be important in Durban but the forecast is currently good with the game set to start under clear skies.
With all things considered, and South Africa's weak bowling attack at the forefront, Australia's total match runs at 271.5 have appeal although it is right to point out that you would probably be able to play overs on something similar on their first-innings line on the Betfair Exchange.
South Africa v Australia first ODI match prediction
Australia are 1.758/11 favourites on the Exchange with South Africa 2.305/4. it is hard to argue that the prices are wrong. Had a Ngidi or Rabada been available then we'd probably be betting South Africa at those odds but the Aussies are a tough nut to crack at the best of time. expecting to do without your best players is a hard ask.
It is true that South Africa won the previous series Down under 2-1 and Australia have dropped off in form since their World Cup win but as Zimbabwe found out there is no side in the world more resolute. They never know when they're beaten. This could be a comfortable win for Australia.
One market we're not sure that they dominate is most sixes. South Africa are 11/102.11 outsiders and the hosts have a better recent hitting record, averaging 8.2 per game compared to Australia's 4.4. That's some gulf.
Back SA most sixes
South Africa v Australia first ODI player tips
The top-rated players on the two-year win-rate markets for top team batter and bowler are best to focus on across the series. At least one is bound to cop at some point.
For South Africa, we wait on Markram to return with a 25% top-bat rate. Maharaj is the man to follow with the ball with five wins from 12. Betfair Sportsbook go 7/24.50.
Travis Head is winning 29% of the time for runs while Micthell Starc has three wins in his last nine. The pair are 16/54.20 and 13/53.60 respectively.