Australia v India Fourth Test Tips: Bowlers to dominate at the G

Australia v India
Wednesday 25 December, 23:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India Fourth Test team news

Australia have been un-Australian in the axing of Nathan McSweeney after just three Tests. Sam Konstas, the 19-year-old New South Wales opener, has been called up.

It's a strange call from an Australia team which had dominated in Brisbane. They seem to have been spooked by India's late charge for wickets on day five. But had there been no rain in that test, the hosts should have won easily.

Adding to the feeling of panic is the loss of Josh Hazlewood to injury for the series. Scott Boland should play although Sean Abbott's five wickets in the Shield earlier this season may mean there is a conversation. Perth pacer Jhye Richardson has also been called up.

Probable Australia XI: Khawaja, Konstas, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, M Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Boland

India would have been delighted to escape the Gabbatoir unharmed. But there are worries about their batting when the ball moves. Yas Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma need to knuckle down. That's a lot of names.

There's also a sense that Jasprit Bumrah is doing too much carrying of the others in the attack. Akash Deep and Nitish Kumar Reddy both lacked penetration. Harshit Rana or Prasidh Krishna could be under consideration for Deep's spot. Washinton Sundar may push Reddy.

Possible India XI: Jaiswal, Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Rahul, Reddy, Sundar, Rana, Bumrah, Siraj

Australia v India Fourth Test pitch report

There has not been a score of more than 250 in any of the eight innings in the Shield at the 'G this season. The first-innings scores in the last five Tests read: 318-189-185-195-467. The 318 and 467 resulted in wins for the side batting first. The 195 was by Australia against India in 2020 with the visitors winning by eight wickets.

There is a clear strategy to be against first-innings runs, particularly as there has been a bit of rain around in the build-up to the contest, although days one and two are presently clear. We do still expect a par line at around the 310.5 mark. On the Exchange first-innings runs market it may be possible to short 330 at 1.834/5.

There are other options. The Exchange's market on the Test to go until day four is of interest in terms of 'no'. Sportsbook's no first-innings century at 5/61.84 will also see business. There's been two tons in first-dig in the last five Tests.

Australia v India Fourth Test match prediction

We do fancy Australia's bowlers to run through India and take a 2-1 series lead. But so does the match odds market. Currently the hosts are 1.684/6. That is skinny enough, thanks.

India are 3.052/1 and one would feel they would have to repeat their approach last time at the 'G. They must bowl first and more quickly find the right length than they did in game two when they let Australia off the hook.

Maybe India are a bit underrated but it is hard not to think that batting conditions just don't suit them. Waiting until they get to a drier and more spin-friendly Sydney is a fair ploy.

Australia v India Fourth Test player bets

With the bowlers expected to dominate early in the piece, Boland at 11/112.00 for man of the match on his home ground is an option. He is ideally suited to these conditions with his bustling pace and late movement. Bumrah is 9/110.00 but is as short as 10/111.91 for top first-innings India bowler. One has to wonder whether that is a little on the skinny side and whether Mohammad Siraj is the bet now at 7/24.50.

Pat Cummins was a nice winner on top bowler in Brisbane but this might be a time for runs. The 25/126.00 he tops scores in the first dig isn't ideal but is a nod to the possibility that 40 or 50 wins this lower down. We also need to name check Reddy at 14/115.00 and Ravi Jadeja at 10/111.00 for the same reason.

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