- Sri Lanka already out of World Cup
- Pakistan on the brink of elimination
- Pitch could be slow and low
- In-play strategies and big top-bat prices
- For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here
Sri Lanka v Pakistan
Saturday25 February, 13:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Sri Lanka v Pakistan T20WC team news
Sri Lanka's campaign has crashed to earth just after it threatened to go into the stratosphere. The victory over Australia suggested they were capable of making a deep run. But the subsequent hammering by Zimbabwe damaged confidence and they are now out with a game to spare.
At various stages they have lost key players to injury, including Wanindu Hasaranga. And they're a team which cannot afford to be anything but full-strength.
The middle order batting has been a problem. Charith Asalanka has come back into the side with Kusal Perera dropped. Kusal Mendis has moved up to open. Dushan Hemantha looks a spot too high at No 7.
Probable SL XI: Nissanka, Mendis, Asalanka, Rathnayake, Shanaka, Kamindu, Wellalage, Hemantha, Chameera, Theekshana, Madushanka
Pakistan are almost certainly out as well. They need a huge win to get past New Zealand on net run rate, so long as they are beaten by England in Colombo on Friday.
The bowling attack has looked threatening with Usman Tariq and Mohammad Nawaz dovetailing nicely as spinners and Shaheen Afridi menacing. But the batting is a mess.
Babar Azam has damaged his reputation further with ponderous displays. He shouldn't be in this format. Usman Khan is batting too low at No 7. Sahibzada Farhan has shown the rest how it's done.
Possible Pakistan XI: Farhan, Ayub, Agha, Babar, Fakhar, Shadab, Usman, Nawaz, Afridi, Mirza, Tariq
Sri Lanka v Pakistan T20WC pitch report
The Pallekele wicket is one which has looked increasingly tricky to bat on. From the tournament-opener high of Sri Lanka posting 225, England laboured and panicked in getting to Pakistan's 164. The game before they had defended just 146.
With so much traffic through the square, it would be a surprise if we didn't see a worn surface for this one. Indeed, it could well be the same wicket used from one of the games mentioned.
That means we should be looking to get against runs, no bad thing considering both batting units are hardly setting the world alight. Taking the highest line on total match runs with Pakistan makes sense. It's an unders play at 166.5 with the collapse well on side regardless of who bats first. On average over their last 30 matches Pakistan's for and against totals are 154 and 134. For Sri Lanka it's 151 and 152. That suggests going unders is smart.
Back Pakistan under 166.5 match runs
Sri Lanka v Pakistan match prediction
In a meaningless game there shouldn't be a rush to get involved on the match odds with two teams prone to calamity. The match could well be decided by the team which is slightly less incompetent than the other.
In-play that makes for a strategy. Taking big prices about the team under pressure in the first-innings is not a bad option. Indeed, it could be wise to be taking on the chaser at the break if a low score is the target. Anything from 120-150 looks to be defendable on this pitch.
Spin will be to the fore and in terms of strength, both teams are capable of a good squeeze. Keep the collapse on side in other words. Pakistan at 1.738/11, as per the golden rule, is a big swerve.
Sri Lanka v Pakistan T20WC player tips
Late-order batters are the follows on a potential dung heap. Around 30-odd could win this market. The standout for Sri Lanka is more about price than bat order, though. Sportsbook make Janith Liyanagae as big as 16s. He's a proper batsman and although unlikely to play could bat as high as No 5. For Pakistan, Nawaz is worth a small interest at 40s.