Prediction Markets
What is a prediction market? What are some examples of prediction exchanges in action? Why is Betfair a 'prediction market' or 'exchange'? All your questions will be answered...
Prediction Market Theory: How a book published in 1921 can help explain the 2008 Wall Street Crash!
The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, explains it all...... Read more | Comment now
Prediction Markets: Follow Betfair Predicts on Twitter
If you are a Twitter user then follow 'betfair predicts' to get regular updates on the latest Betfair predictions... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "What do prediction markets, an article published in 1952, and the Babylonian Talmud have in common? And where does Don Quixote fit in?"
The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells all...... Read more | Comment now
Prediction Markets: What the 2009 Epsom Derby can tell us about the market, and about the ballot box!
The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, takes a look at the ins-and-outs of the Epsom Derby...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: Alice's adventures in the looking glass world of prediction markets!
What's Alice In Wonderland got to do with Prediction Markets? It's a wonderful world, says Leighton Vaughan Williams...... Read more | Comment now
Would John McCain have raised taxes? There's no need to guess. Just ask the prediction markets!
The Betfair Prof looks at what would have happened if John McCain made it to the White House...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Why does the poker market differ from the prediction market?"
Or does it? The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, explains it all...... Read more | Comments (2)
The Betfair Prof: "If crowds are so wise, why can't they solve a million dollar maths challenge?"
On 24 May, 2000, during a meeting held at the College de France in Paris, the challenge was made. A million dollars would be paid to anyone offering a proof or a counterexample to any of seven mathematical conjectures.... Read more | Comment now
Prediction Markets: How an ancient Greek philosopher made his fortune
The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells us how prediction markets might have made it even bigger!... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Can We Predict Earthquakes?"
Following the latest devastating earthquake in Italy, the Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, asks if it's time for prediction markets to be tested to give early warning in the future...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "The Angel was always going to surprise us on Easter Sunday, but not before the markets had all but lost faith!"
Leighton Vaughan Williams takes a look back at the action from the US Masters...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "What does Mon Mome have in common with Caughoo, and why is it so important for prediction markets?"
Leighton Vaughan Williams takes a look at Mon Mome's stunning win in the Grand National on Saturday and why it's important for prediction markets...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Winning Like A Longshot Shouldn't!"
A cautionary tale from Leighton Vaughan Williams for followers of the Betfair market...... Read more | Comment now
The Cosmic Prediction Market: What were the odds of all this happening?
Leighton Vaughan Williams has some mind-blowing thoughts on the chances of life establishing itself on planet earth.... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Beating the Dealer!"
Some people should just call it a day when they realise the odds aren't in your favour, but the Betfair Prof explains how it's possible to win at blackjack if you play your cards right...... Read more | Comment now
Prediction Market Theory: What an 18th Century English Reverend Can Teach 21st Century Juries!
How reliable is DNA evidence in solving crimes? Not as reliable as you might think, says the Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "It's the Riddle of the Caskets!"
Should you stick with the box you chose in the first place or take the swap?! The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, puts you straight...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "How modern-day sports forecasters stand on the shoulders of a medieval scholar!"
Want to know all about Occam's Razor and how it can be used to make money on sports? The Betfair Prof tells all...... Read more | Comment now
Prediction Markets: Is it accuracy or efficiency that is most important when it comes to prediction markets?
One of the most influential bloggers on prediction markets thinks that the accuracy of prediction markets has been exaggerated in the past, and it is in fact efficiency that should be of more interest...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "What does poker have in common with prediction markets - and tank driving?"
How does poker have anything to do with prediction markets? The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells all...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Can the Super Bowl Predict the Stock Market?"
According to the conclusions of a paper by Professors Thomas Krueger and William Kennedy, published in the Journal of Finance in June of 1990, if the American football Super Bowl is won by a team from the old National Football League, then the stock market is very likely to finish... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Is there a favourite-longshot bias in no-limit Texas hold'em poker?"
The Betfair Prof takes a look at poker, odds, value, the right play and what this all means for the favourite-longshot bias...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Never bet on anything that talks!"
Is this the lesson of the latest reality show upset? The Betfair Prof talks Celebrity Big Brother...... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "You can win backing the longest of longshots!"
The amazing case of the horse called Topless that lost the man on top, and how it won one Betfair trader £111,000!... Read more | Comment now
The Betfair Prof: "Acapulco has a certain magic, and it's not just the sun, sand and surf!"
The Four Tops got it dead on when they declared that you'd be "Going loco down in Acapulco, if you stay too long. Yes you'll be going loco down in Acapulco, The magic down there is so strong".... Read more | Comment now
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