Cooler frequency and variance

Poker Strategy / Marcus Bateman / 11 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

The term 'cooler' simply refers to a situation where two hands run into each other that are both so powerful that neither can fold. Running kings into aces, getting shown oversets, or getting beaten by higher flushes are all good examples of coolers in hold'em, and thinking about their effect on the game can really help when it comes to dealing with variance and the downswings of poker.

Fundamentally, coolers are zero sum propositions. That is, neither player has any edge in these situations, as when the shoe is on the other foot, the action pans out exactly the same way. Although there are the odd situations where very good players can fold in cooler situations (mostly against very predictable opponents in extremely specific spots), it is nearly always a huge mistake to fold any of these hands, as ultimately they are the hands that you make all of the money with in poker in the long run (folding sets and flushes regularly is about the worse idea possible in hold'em).

Although it still stings on the day, it is important to remember that these situations do not affect you in the long run, as the money will eventually come back to you when the situation is reversed. However, not all poker games are created equally, and the frequency of coolers also fundamentally changes the bankroll requirements for a game, a point it is crucial you understand and adapt to if you do not want to go broke in the long run.

Coolers increase variance (and therefore the size of the bankroll you need to weather the swings) because they create many more opportunities for a player to run bad. In a game like Pot Limit Omaha, where coolers are very common (due to the huge number of hand combinations possible), the variance is increased drastically, because you can easily lose four or five coolers in a row. Compare this to a game like Stud Hi/Lo, where coolers are much rarer (due to the more limited nature of hand combinations and the split nature of most pots), and as a result the variance is not as great.

Coolers are an area weak players struggle to deal with on the whole, as although they win their fair share of them, when they lose their fair share they tend to tilt and lose more than good players do on hands afterwards. Being able to cope with coolers (and variance in general) is a crucial part of being a good player, and understanding the nature of coolers and their implications is critical to long term success.

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