Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 05 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

It has been 111 days of waiting. Finally, tomorrow, the 2010 World Series of Poker Main Event resumes with the start of the final table. It's finally here -- the "November Nine"!

We've heard a lot already about how Harrah's and the WSOP plan to present the event (see details here). That picture, by the way, snapped by the great Flipchip, comes from last year's November Nine as it played out at the Penn & Teller Theater in the Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino.

Play begins at noon Vegas time on Saturday, with the final nine playing down to two before stopping. Those two will then return on Monday around 8 p.m. to begin the process of determining the winner.

Here are the stacks to which the players will be returning, as well as the seating assignments:

Seat 1: Jason Senti -- 7,625,000 (9th)
Seat 2: Joseph Cheong -- 23,525,000 (3rd)
Seat 3: John Dolan -- 46,250,000 (2nd)
Seat 4: Jonathan Duhamel -- 65,975,000 (1st)
Seat 5: Michael Mizrachi -- 14,450,000 (7th)
Seat 6: Matt Jarvis -- 16,700,000 (5th)
Seat 7: John Racener -- 19,050,000 (4th)
Seat 8: Filippo Candio -- 16,400,000 (6th)
Seat 9: Soi Nguyen -- 9,650,000 (8th)

Fans and commentators have had nearly four months to try to handicap the final table, their efforts aided considerably by the 26 hours' worth of coverage of the Main Event that have been aired on ESPN every week since early August.

For overviews of each of the final nine players, check out Matthew Pitt's discussions of both the "big stacks" (Duhamel, Dolan, Cheong, and Racener) and the "shorter stacks" (Jarvis, Candio, Mizrachi, Nguyen, and Senti).

Here's more on how each of these nine made it to tomorrow's final table, as well as some further thoughts that might be of use as you try to make those last-minute predictions.

Jonathan Duhamel (1st, 65,975,000) comes to the final table with a massive lead over most of his opponents, with only John Dolan's stack coming close. Duhamel ended Day 6 with an above-average stack of 4.295 million, placing him just inside the top 20 with 78 left. On Day 7 he continued to make progress, more than doubling his chips to 10.52 million which landed him in seventh with 27 remaining.

However, it was Day 8 -- the final day of play in July -- that saw him surge to the top of the counts. That was also the day on which the Canadian (one of two at the final table along with Matt Jarvis) won what is easily the "hand of the tournament" thus far.

With 15 players remaining, Duhamel had moved into the chip lead with about 30 million when he looked down to find pocket jacks in the cutoff. He raised, and Matt Affleck -- then with about 21 million -- reraised from the button with Ac-As. It folded back to Duhamel who four-bet (to almost 4 million), and Affleck just called. The flop came 10d-9c-7h, and Duhamel check-called Affleck's 5 million-chip bet. The turn was the Qd. Duhamel checked again, Affleck pushed, and after nearly five minutes of deliberation Duhamel made the call. About a four-to-one dog, Duhamel hit his straight when the 8d landed on the river, knocking out Affleck and pushing the hoodie-wearing Duhamel up over 50 million.

He'd continue to lean on the others, using his big stack to exert pressure as they played down to the final nine. Duhamel's big stack necessarily makes him a strong contender to take the bracelet, although we haven't seen anyone begin the final table with the chip lead and win the WSOP ME since Jamie Gold did it in 2006.

John Dolan (2nd, 46,250,000) finished Day 5 with a slightly-below-average stack of 986,000, putting him 95th of the remaining 205 players. Day 6 was a good one for him, highlighted by a late-day double-up through Robert Pisano. All in with Qh-Jh versus Pisano's 9c-8c following a Ah-10c-7h flop, Dolan managed to dodge Pisano's many outs to win the hand and end the day with 3.47 million, good for 24th of the remaining 78.

Dolan managed to survive Day 7 despite seeing his chip stack decrease to 2.175 million by day's end, putting him in 24th of the last 27. He was nearly eliminated in a hand versus Michael Skender, though got his chips in good on the flop with a top pair of aces versus Skender's pocket tens. Dolan faded the turn and river to survive, then limped to the end of the day.

Day 8 was an entirely different story for the online pro from Florida -- one of three at this year's ME final table from the state (along with John Racener and Michael Mizrachi). First he doubled through Scott Clements. Then he did so again through Michiel Sijpkens. Then he won a large pot versus Duy Le when the latter, who held pocket aces, elected just to call Dolan's preflop raise with 5s-5d. Dolan flopped a set of fives, and Le ended up paying him off.

Dolan would soon eliminate Le in 13th place, then continued to pressure the table during the final table bubble to build a handsome stack heading into Saturday. Dolan sits in a favorable spot, with plenty of chips with which to continue to pressure the shorter stacks, as well as enough to challenge Duhamel.

Joseph Cheong (3rd, 23,525,000), the well-known online player (where he goes by the optical-illusiony-username "subiime") rose to the top of the chip counts on Day 6 following a hand in which his pocket aces successfully outlasted Christopher George's Qd-Qh. He'd end that day 10th of 78, then began Day 7 in aggressive mode, swiftly moving back to the top of the counts where he remained for much of the day.

When the final 27 returned for Day 8, Cheong was on top with more than 24 million, and while he would experience some ups and downs that final day of play in July, he'd end the day right about where he started, putting him in third place for the four-month respite.

Among the downs that day was the loss of an enormous 25 million-plus pot against Filippo Candio in which the latter experienced some especially good fortune (described below). Cheong bounced back, though, scoring a 7-plus million pot against leader Duhamel with a diamond flush and later using pocket kings to knock out Pascal LeFrancois in 11th place.

In addition to a number of big online scores, Cheong has a WSOP Circuit win to his credit as well, having beaten David Williams heads-up in a $340 NLHE event back in March of this year. Along with John Racener, Cheong will probably be enjoying the most "virtual" support among the final nine thanks to his online presence. Cheong plays with quiet poise at the table, suggesting self-assurance -- a suggestion reinforced considerably by his having been able to recover from that Candio hand with 23 players left.

John Racener (4th, 19,050,000) comes to the final table with a long, impressive resume of online successes where his tourney winnings reportedly exceed $1 million. He also possesses a relative wealth of experience at the WSOP, having cashed four times in both 2009 and 2010, plus making another final table at this year's WSOP Europe where he took fifth place in the £5,000 pot-limit Omaha event.

Racener snared the chip lead late on Day 6 in a big three-way all-in between himself (holding pocket queens), John May (who had two aces), and Manig Loeser (pocket sixes). A queen flopped, causing two eliminations and giving Racener the 4.5 million-chip pot.

The gum-chewing Floridian would maintain that lead for the start of Day 7 before moving back to the middle of the pack, then back up to end that day in eighth out of 27 left. A fast start on Day 8 put Racener back out in front as he eliminated William Thorson (22nd), Michiel Sijpkens (19th), and Hasan Habib (14th). Mizrachi would then score a modest double-up with pocket kings through Racener's Kd-Jc to survive, and as the final bubble played out he'd mostly stay out of trouble to end in fourth.

Racener's extensive MTT experience both online and live makes him a favorite among the large group of players entering this table with below-average stacks. Of course, things are skewed a bit with Duhamel and Dolan so far out in front -- the average is in fact almost 24.4 million, meaning the other seven are technically all below that mark.

Matt Jarvis (5th, 16,700,000) finally started to gather some attention on Day 6 when he built up a nice stack to finish the day in sixth place out of the remaining 78. He held steady throughout Day 7, then scored a big double up through Patrick Eskandar in a hand in which all the chips went in the middle on the turn with the board showing 10c-3s-5s-9s. Eskandar had a set of fives, but Jarvis had Ks-Js for a spade flush. His hand held, and Jarvis ended the day with more than 13 million, good for fifth out of 27.

And fifth is where Jarvis ended up on Day 8, too. One of the more remarkable hands of that day for the Canadian came between him and eventual 15th-place finisher Matt Affleck. As we later learned from ESPN's coverage, Jarvis began the hand with pocket jacks, while Affleck held pocket tens. Both contributed significant chips preflop, on the flop, and on the turn as the board came Qc-9h-4h-Jc. The river was the 2c, and Affleck finally folded to Jarvis' all-in bet of 4.78 million.

That hand pushed Jarvis up over 23 million. He'd exceed the 30 million-chip mark at one point, eliminating Scott Clements (18th) and Benjamin Statz (16th) along the way. He'd slip back a bit, though, before knocking out Brandon Steven in 10th for the final elimination of the summer.

Though he has some experience, Jarvis hasn't had much in the way of cashes previously, with just a few small scores in his native British Columbia and in the U.S. and this being his first-ever WSOP cash. Still, he's come off relatively well as far as his decision-making goes in the hands shown on ESPN, making him a dark horse pick for some to emerge from the group of short stacks to contend.

Filippo Candio (6th, 16,400,000) was a player I happened to cover some on Day 5 when he was moved over to the main feature table. He mostly sat tight that day with a below-average stack, although he did get involved in a couple of big hands with shorter stacks from which he survived relatively unscathed. It was Day 6, however, that Candio found his way onto the radar of everyone, including the tourney officials. That was the day he found himself serving a one-round penalty early on after winning an all-in confrontation with pocket aces versus Michael Skender's pocket queens. Candio's post-hand celebration was a little much, thought the tourney director, and he was made to sit out an orbit.

Day 6 ended quite dramatically for Candio as well when he survived another all-in hand against Manuel Davidian. All in before the flop, Candio had Ah-Ks versus Davidian's pocket tens, and a king came to give Candio the more than 5.3 million-chip pot. I remember after the hand Candio -- whose English isn't the greatest -- saying to a dejected (and non-responsive) Davidian "Good gambling, eh? Go for the maximum, not the minimum."

Candio would prove his willingness to gamble again on Day 8 on more than one occasion, the most notable being a hand between himself and Joseph Cheong. With 23 players left, Candio committed his entire stack of 12 million-plus following a flop of 6c-6h-5c. Cheong had pocket aces, and Candio only had 7s-5s. Lucky for him, the 8s turn and 4c river gave Candio a runner-runner straight, suddenly making him the chip leader at the time. Candio would subsequently lose a lot of those chips, however, and needed a late double-up through John Racener to make it to the final nine.

That hand versus Cheong -- coupled with the emotion the striped-sweater-wearing Italian has displayed -- has caused many to think of Candio as this year's "wild card" player, capable of more unpredictable play that could perhaps prove disruptive to the other players' strategies.

Michael Mizrachi (7th, 14,450,000) is easily the most familiar face at this year's WSOP ME final table, occupying a position not unlike Phil Ivey's last year as the best-known pro. As was the case with Ivey, Mizrachi comes to the table with a below average stack and in seventh place, but he is nonetheless considered by most to be perhaps the most able to work that small stack back into the competitive range and become a threat to win.

Mizrachi is known, of course, as "The Grinder," a nickname that has a couple of connotations, but primarily refers to his ability to "grind" away and survive in tournaments. In fact, Mizrachi was short-stacked during long stretches of the Main Event back in July, and thus found it necessary to do a lot of "grinding" in order to make it as deep as he has.

On Day 4 -- the day the cash bubble burst -- I was covering the feature table where Mizrachi was seated for much of the day, his stack well below the average. He mostly sat tight that day, playing small pots and surviving into the money. When that moment arrived, he and his three brothers made history as all four had made the cash, although at the time it didn't look like Michael would be outlasting his siblings. But he did. All of the way to the final table, even enjoying the chip lead for a time on Day 6.

Mizrachi seems especially cool and relaxed this week, participating in a live instructional online video for DeepStacks University on Wednesday, and participating in a "Poker After Dark" cash game on Thursday. He obviously comes to the final table with the most relevant experience, his two WPT titles and that victory in this year's $50,000 Player's Championship at the WSOP among his many high profile accomplishments. Having that large support group of poker-playing family members and fans won't hurt him, either.

Soi Nguyen (8th, 9,650,000) catapulted to prominence on Day 7, thanks largely to an enormous hand between himself and Theo Jorgensen. At the time, both were among the chip leaders when a series of bets on a Kc-5h-9c flop ended with Nguyen all in and the pot more than 19 million. Surprisingly, Jorgensen had but a flush draw with Ac-3c, and had been unable to make Nguyen lay down Kh-Jc. Nguyen's hand held and he was the new chip leader.

Nguyen ended that day second in chips with 27 players left. In interviews he noted his plan for Day 8 had been to sit tight, but he couldn't resist getting involved and after stumbling a bit found himself one of the short stacks with 10 remaining. While a friend of Nam Le and 2008 November Niner Chino Rheem, Nguyen is a self-admitted amateur, easily the least experienced player among the final nine. Not only is this his first ever WSOP Main Event, but his fourth live tournament ever.

The Jorgensen hand, his relative experience, and his short-stacked position might encourage some to compare Nguyen to 2007 WSOP ME champion Jerry Yang. Yang came to that final table seventh in chips, and was dismissed by many as a tight, inexperienced player incapable of taking it down. Yang surprised everyone, however, with an ultra-aggressive start at that final table, quickly grabbing the chip lead which he then managed to preserve to the end.

It is worth noting that Yang's victory came in the final year before the WSOP instituted the new delayed final table and "November Nine." Whereas Yang's opponents (and those of us watching) had relatively little idea of how he played before that final table, the case is different for Nguyen, who has been featured on ESPN over the last few weeks fully acknowledging his rawness as a player. The delay perhaps hurts Nguyen in that regard -- in other words, players will be wary of making a play against Nguyen such as Jorgensen did, knowing he might not fold. (Remember how Yang made similar calls against players at the 2007 WSOP ME?) Then again, Nguyen has had the opportunity to receive tutelage from his poker pro friends over these intervening months, which may help him.

Jason Senti (9th, 7,625,000) made it to the final table primarily because of a magical Day 7 in which he ran like a god from start to finish. That was the day those of us reporting on Senti first began to notice him, as previously he was one of the many who appeared destined to exit well short of the final nine.

Entering Day 7, Senti was way down near the bottom of the chip counts with 78 players remaining. He had 970,000 chips to start the day, which meant he had around 20 big blinds. The average stack then was a little over 2.8 million. But then he doubled-up. And did so again. Then he won a couple more flips, and by day's end he'd accumulated 13.55 million, good for fourth out of 27.

Senti then started Day 8 well, winning a few more chips early on with pocket kings against David Baker. But he gave a large chunk to Filippo Candio in a hand without a showdown when he couldn't call the Italian's large river bet. His stack dwindled a bit more, then near the end he doubled up eventual 10th-place finisher Brandon Steven in hand in which the latter's Ac-Kc survived an all-in versus Senti's Kh-10d.

Senti's short stack necessarily makes him a long shot, though that remarkable battle-back on Day 6 -- while somewhat predicated on some fortunate, well-timed cards -- shows that he has made a lot out of a little before, something which may well help him to do so again.

All told, it's a strong final nine, perhaps more so than we've seen in a few years. But only one will emerge on Monday night with the bracelet. Should be an especially exciting weekend at the Rio as we learn which of the nine does so, winning not just the bracelet and $8,944,310, but a permanent spot in poker history.

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