Handicapper's Corner: St Nicholas Abbey the star at BC2011

Simon Rowlands / Simon Rowlands / 07 November 2011 / 1 Comments

St Nicholas Abbey winning the Turf.

"The organisers of the Breeders' Cup must avoid complacency if the event's "World Championship" status is not to become even more difficult to justify."

Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action...

With rather a lot to get through this week, let's cut to the chase with the Timeform performance ratings of the winners of the big races over the two days of Breeders' Cup 2011, along with how they stack up historically.

Juvenile Sprint: SECRET CIRCLE 115+ (race not run previously)
Juvenile Fillies' Turf: STEPHANIE'S KITTEN 113 (average for previous 3 years: 112)
Filly & Mare Sprint: MUSICAL ROMANCE 119 (average 121)
Juvenile Fillies: MY MISS AURELIA 121+ (average 117)
Filly & Mare Turf: PERFECT SHIRL 118 (average 119)
Ladies' Classic: ROYAL DELTA 124 (average 125)
Marathon: AFLEET AGAIN 116 (average 117)
Juvenile Turf: WROTE 118+ (average 117)
Sprint: AMAZOMBIE 123 (average 123)
Turf Sprint: REGALLY READY 123 (average 121)
Dirt Mile: CALEB'S POSSE 124 (average 120)
Turf: ST NICHOLAS ABBEY 127 (average 125)
Juvenile: HANSEN 119 (average 122)
Mile: COURT VISION 123 (average 126, with Goldikova's sex allowance added back on)
Classic: DROSSELMEYER 126 (average 129)

The latest Breeders' Cup compares respectably with recent ones, overall. But, crucially, it lacked any stellar performances on the ratings. There were a few stellar performers - notably Goldikova - but each of them underperformed for one reason or another.

The Mile and the Classic had top billing but proved to be substandard, with Drosselmeyer's surprise win in the latter producing the co-lowest Timeform rating in the race since 1991.

The highlights in form terms arguably were: the win of St Nicholas Abbey in the Turf (though he is manifestly not the best mile-and-a-half horse in Europe, even after this); the win of Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile (the best winner of the race, first run in 2007); and the win of My Miss Aurelia in the Juvenile Fillies.

The last-named produced the one performance which truly merited the "World Championship of Thoroughbred Racing" tag which some involved with the Breeders' Cup have adopted.

My Miss Aurelia, already the top-rated two-year-old of either sex in North America on Timeform ratings, cemented her position as the best two-year-old filly in the world, her master rating of 122p ahead of Maybe in Europe by five pounds.

It was not a good year for the Breeders' Cup to have a slightly underwhelming event. It was the year in which the UK had its best Flat season for decades, wonderfully capped by the first British Champions Day, and it was the year of Frankel (rated 143) and Black Caviar (rated 135, plus her sex allowance). And yet neither of those horses showed up at Churchill Downs.

The average Timeform rating of the best five winning performances over the two days of the Breeders' Cup came in at 125.6 (after an upward adjustment for sex allowance). The same for the one day of Ascot's inaugural British Champions Day was 128.2. Dubai World Cup Day was 126.0 and Longchamp's Arc Day was 125.8.

The organisers of the Breeders' Cup must avoid complacency if the event's "World Championship" status is not to become even more difficult to justify.

............................

The aforementioned Black Caviar did not have to be at her best to extend her unbeaten run to 16 at Flemington on a day that saw the Melbourne Cup go to the French-based Dunaden (rated 123) by a nose from British-trained Red Cadeaux (rated 121).

The focus switches firmly in Britain and Ireland to jumps racing from this point on, and there were a few notable performances in that sphere in the week just gone.

Quito de La Roque ran to c161 in winning the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Down Royal from the non-staying Sizing Europe (remains on c171), while Kauto Stone (formerly in France, now with Paul Nicholls in Britain) ran to just 1 less in winning a Grade 2 chase on the same card.

Medermit posted a c154 figure in winning the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup Chase at Exeter but would have been beaten by Captain Chris (rated c161p) had that one not unseated at the last.

Grandouet (rated h154) might well also have won had he not fallen two out in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, leaving the race to Celestial Halo (rated h157).

The success of Silviniaco Conti in a Grade 2 novice chase elsewhere on the Wincanton card might well be even more significant with the future in mind. The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding was a good hurdler (rated h162) and has already got up to a figure of c145p after just two starts over the larger obstacles.

Comments (1)

1. Simon Rowlands | 07 November 2011

   As a follow-up to some feedback on Twitter, I would say the absence of the world's best racehorse from the "World Thoroughbred Championships" is relevant. Frankel's absence at Churchill Downs and presence at Ascot reduced the average winning Timeform ratings of the former (probably!) and boosted them at Ascot. But that is precisely the point.

   However, if you, understandably, prefer medians to means, the figures for those race days (or both days in the Breeders' Cup's case) are as follows:

   Dubai World Cup Day 126
   British Champions Day 124
   Breeders' Cup Meeting 124
   Arc Day 122

   There are many ways to look at the data to establish both strength and depth, but it seems clear that - this year, and judged on the Timeform ratings of the winners only - The Breeders' Cup did not stand out as pre-eminent.

   The times they are a-changing. Perhaps!

   Simon