In Running Week: All Weather specialists for December

In-running / Neil Munro / 06 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

I Confess is one to be on at Lingfield (above)

"On the All-Weather I Confess has won 12 races in 49 starts, not far off a 25% win ratio."

Neil Munro profiles three horses who provide promising in-play options on the All Weather surface...

This time last year most of Britain and Ireland were covered in snow and racing really suffered with abandonments everywhere. Even All-Weather racing took a hit but it is normally the survivor that keeps us with trading material so I thought I would put up a few horses to keep an eye out for on the artificial surfaces.

I Confess

This natural front runner is a great advert for breaking down the profile of a horse. The six-year-old is certainly not averse to racing, having had 82 career starts already. Of those, 33 have taken place on turf and on that surface he has only got his head in front once. But on the All-Weather I Confess has won 12 races in 49 starts, not far off a 25% win ratio. That is pretty decent but we can break it down even further and deduce that he performs best at Lingfield. Indeed, his record over seven furlongs at the Sussex racecourse is seven wins and eight places from 23 runs. Also, he has never won in Class 4 or above so avoid him at that level. Being a front runner, you can trade on him under his best conditions.

When running over Lingfield seven furlongs back pre-race at BSP; lay out your stake at half BSP. If price allows lay out some more at lower odds to green up both sides.

Greyfriarschorista

Formerly with Mark Johnston, the four-year-old son of King's Best has now joined Brian Ellison and I can easily see the horse having a fair bit of success over the All-Weather winter. He is much better on the polytrack than on turf and has a cracking strike rate over seven or eight furlongs. Greyfriarschorista really lost his way on turf, being unable to get to the front in races and disappointing consistently, but this has meant the handicapper has given him a chance. All four career wins have come when unchallenged at the front so you need to do a bit of work prior to the race to analyse if there's any other pace in the race.

If the pace profiling looks like he will get an easy lead, back him pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake only if running over seven or eight furlongs on the polytrack.

Berbice

I wrote about Berbice back in the summer but I had to re-visit him as he has just picked up two wins on the All-Weather back-to-back. That's two wins in two, having taken 63 runs to pick up the previous two victories. Linda Perratt's six-year-old is renowned as a horse that travels well from off the pace and then doesn't find as much as in-running backers would expect. So despite Berbice's recent success he is one to be wary of. But currently his record on the polytrack over seven furlongs is three wins and two places in five efforts.

Over seven furlongs on the polytrack back pre-race at BSP and lay out your stake only at half BSP in the run; under any other conditions lay double your stake at half the BSP.