Handicappers' Corner: Beware of novice good-things?

Handicappers' Corner / Phil Turner / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Al Ferof remains with the strongest credentials for Cheltenham.

"In our opinion, Al Ferof had the strongest form amongst the Arkle contenders even before the Ascot race and his third there has only strengthened that view..."

Bookmakers' satchels have bulged down the years thanks to Cheltenham Festival bankers who've failed to live up to expectations back in novice company. Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner suggests this year may be different...

The two much anticipated races at Cheltenham on Tuesday, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and Arkle Challenge Trophy, have both been littered by unsuccessful favourites who've attained their lofty position in the betting on the back of notable efforts outside of novice company.

Cue Card, of course, managed only fourth when a short-priced favourite for the 2011 Supreme, having finished a fine second to Champion Hurdle hopeful Menorah in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham on his previous start.

Irish-trained His Song, meanwhile, was a warm order for the 1998 Supreme after finishing runner-up to the mighty Istabraq in that year's Irish Champion Hurdle on his final prep run, yet he had to settle for second again at Cheltenham. Seven years earlier, the juvenile Nordic Surprise actually won the Irish Champion, yet he couldn't make the same impact in both the Supreme (fourth) and the Triumph (twenty-fourth!) come the Festival.

It's been a similar tale of woe for supposed good-things in the Arkle, dating back to the Jimmy Fitzgerald-trained Sybillin in 1991, who ran out a ten-length winner of the VC Chase (then a handicap) at Ascot but flopped when 5/4-on at Cheltenham, finishing a remote third behind Travado (who'd been confined to novice chases).

Kadastrof split the top-class pair Ask Tom and Viking Flagship in the 1998 Game Spirit Chase, yet could manage only tenth when sent off favourite back in novice company in the Arkle next time. The ill-fated Don't Be Shy went one better in the 2006 Game Spirit, yet was a never-dangerous fifth back amongst his peers at Cheltenham.

So what does this trip down memory lane prove? In fact, most of the horses in question weren't flattered by their eye-catching efforts outside of novice company and actually ran respectably at Cheltenham, yet they were coming up against unexposed rivals from top yards who simply hadn't had the same opportunities to prove themselves at that sort of level.

All of which could be used as evidence to tread carefully at Cheltenham with Al Ferof (c161), who became Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser seen out so far in 2011/12 following his highly creditable third behind Somersby (c168) and Finian's Rainbow (c166) in the latest renewal of the Victor Chandler at Ascot on Saturday.

However, in stark contrast to most of the other historical examples already mentioned, there hasn't been an over-reaction to Al Ferof's Ascot third - indeed, he's even drifted in some places as third favourite in the Arkle ante-post market - and it increasingly seems that his solid form claims for Cheltenham are being overlooked in favour of more visually-impressive performances by some of his rivals.

Chief amongst these, of course, is Sprinter Sacre (c154p) who has created an admittedly excellent impression when winning two small-field novice chases, but it bears repeating that he has five-and-a-quarter lengths to find with Al Ferof from last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

In our opinion, Al Ferof had the strongest form amongst the Arkle contenders even before the Ascot race and his third there has only strengthened that view. As for anyone worried that history is stacked against Al Ferof making a successful return to novice company, well they can take some solace from the fact that Arcalis sprang a 20/1 surprise in the 2005 Supreme having made the frame in Kempton's Christmas Hurdler earlier in the campaign!

Somersby and Finian's Rainbow have both figured prominently in recent editions of the Arkle, finishing runner-up in 2010 and 2011 respectively, and could yet go one better at the Festival. In truth, Finian's Rainbow still has a bit to find with the Irish pair Big Zeb (c173) and Sizing Europe (c172) in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, but Somersby looks to have strong claims if allowed to take his chance in Thursday's Ryanair Chase instead this year.

As for other notable performances this weekend, Cinders And Ashes (h139p) told us little new in completing his hat-trick in a depleted field for the Grade 2 Rossington Main at Haydock, but there's plenty to like about the way he goes about things and he is well worth trying in a higher grade, with the Supreme Novices' being his target.

The latter sentiment also applies to Smad Place (h153p), who showed much improved form upped in trip to make a winning reappearance at Ascot and seems sure to go on to even better things. Meanwhile, French import Triolo d'Alene (c133p) overcame some jumping errors to make a winning debut for Nicky Henderson, and is another worth following over the coming weeks and months.