Handicappers' Corner: Dream stays Ahead - just!

Timeform Debate / David Johnson / 06 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dream Ahead got the best of a three-way photo finish in the Haydock Sprint Cup

"Dream Ahead's pre-race rating of 129 remains unchanged..."

A weekend of top-class action with Group 1 contests at Haydock and Leopardstown were the highlights. David Johnson gives us the Timeform view from a ratings perspective.

Though missing Deacon Blues, as well as 5f Group 1 winners Prohibit and Margot Did, there was still plenty of strength to the Haydock Sprint Cup and the form makes plenty of sense with the three that dominated the betting and headed the pre-race Timeform ratings coming to the fore.

That said, it's difficult to go very high on the bare form - 7-y-o Genki wasn't too far behind in fourth, getting closer to the first two than he had in the July Cup - but the first three are all probably value for extra.

Race standards for the Sprint Cup give a pretty narrow range of 121-124 for the winner. However this year's sprinters are a better crop than there has been for a while and prior rating standards would suggest a much higher 129. The truth is probably somewhere in between and the first three have all been credited with a figure of 125.

Dream Ahead's pre-race rating of 129 remains unchanged, as does that of Hoof It (128) whilst Bated Breath is now rated 127. Genki rises to 120, an improvement on the 116 he was awarded when third in a weaker renewal twelve months beforehand.

Whilst the Sprint Cup undoubtedly provided the most exciting finish of the weekend, the highest ratings were being earned in the Irish Champion Stakes.

So You Think returned from a mid-season break to gain a third northern-hemisphere Group 1 (eighth in all), and though only workmanlike, he was forced into running close to his best.

With Famous Name six lengths back in third, So You Think has been credited with running to 132, the same figure he posted when winning the Eclipse. In pushing him to within ½ length, Snow Fairy earned a rating of 128, a career-best having been rated 123 coming into the race. She certainly looks set for another profitable autumn on her travels, but apparently could take in the Arc first.

The other Group 1 action at Leopardstown was the Matron Stakes. Misty For Me was a short-priced favourite to follow up her Pretty Polly win but was a below-par third, four lengths behind Emulous who has been rated 123 for her first victory at the top-level. Together was runner-up in Group 1 company for the third time this year, returning to form to post a 115 effort.

Kempton hosted their best card of the year with the September Stakes and Sirenia Stakes, which alongside the Winter Derby are the only British pattern races run on an artificial surface.

The September Stakes had looked a good opportunity for Harris Tweed to break his Group-race duck but he again came up short, perhaps not having enough use made of him, and he proved vulnerable to Modun.

Both prior ratings standards as well as race standards point to a figure in the 116-120 range, and Modun has been raised to 118p. Bronze Cannon pushed him closest, earning a figure of 115 and though not seen to best effect, it's unlikely he can get back to the level he showed in 2009 for John Gosden when rated 123.

Shumoos got back to winning ways in the Sirenia, edging out Vocational late on, both earning a figure of 105. Shumoos' master rating has been raised to 107+, still some way short of the best 2-y-o fillies, whilst an average rating of 115 has been required for the Cheveley Park over the last five years.

Turkey staged its most valuable meeting of the year where there were a number of British-trained horses in action. Indian Days didn't have to improve on his best of 119 to gain back-to-back successes in the Bosphorus Cup, beating Campanologist by a neck, both running to a mark of 116.