Trainers To Follow In December: Featuring Alan King, David Pipe and more...
Wayne Bailey highlights the trainers who perform best in Christmas month.
Well, not a bad month for November's trainers to follow really.
It could have been a lot better had some of those massive priced seconds gone in, but still - profit is profit at the end of the day and I won't complain. In total, we had 13 winners from 75 bets (17.33%) and had you put £10 on each, you'd be £190.50 better off (using Betfair SP). Once again, I must stress that anyone using traditional bookies must seriously think about their betting habits as a profit of only £52.60 was shown using the industry SP - a huge difference.
While it wasn't as good a month as October, November's money brings the total overall profit £1165.80 to £10 stakes since I started the trainer to follow articles.
If you are a first time reader, it's pretty simple what I'm trying to do. Basically, I try to find the trainers that do consistently well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. It's not rocket science, but it has served me well over the years and paid for a few bills along the way.
Speaking of bills, December is full of them! Having a four-year-old daughter means I have to keep up-to-date with what's hot and what's not in the toy store - and believe me, life size Dora The Explorer dolls ain't cheap these days. Let's hope December's trainers can help me out in that regard!
In all seriousness though, I must give the usual health warnings and if anyone is going to follow this, do it only with money you can afford to lose. Just because something worked in the past doesn't mean it will in the future and like all gambling, there's plenty of risk involved. Don't bank on it to pay for the wife's new fur coat at Christmas as she could be disappointed if things go awry!
So then, on to the trainers to follow. Once again, I'll be using Betfair SP and will report back at the end of the month with a profit/loss figure:
Alan King
Around this time last year, I advised punters to back Alan King's horses in December, and he duly showed a profit of £1148.60 to £10 stakes.
King eases his horses into the season but by the time December rolls around, he's firing on all cylinders. He's been warming up with some wins in November and now is the time to get on.
David Pipe
David Pipe caused quite an upset on Saturday when Madison Du Berlais won the Hennessy Gold Cup at [43.0] and his treble that afternoon hopefully signals the end of a long losing spell. While we've only two years of data to go on, Pipe has performed extremely well in the month of December, and shows plenty of profit to go with it.
William Jarvis
While the data sample is relatively small, William Jarvis has a cracking strike-rate in December of over 33% and shows a very reasonable profit to level stakes. William Jarvis knows the game well and older readers will remember his father Ryan firing the winners home with regularity from the 50s to the 70s. He probably won't have as many horses running as the others at this time of year, but he's fairly reliable and I'm hoping for more of the same from Phantom House Stables.
Miss Venetia Williams
Williams actually worked for Pipe's father Martin, before taking out her own licence in 1995. She usually has plenty of horses running at this time of the year, and since 2003, she's had 73 winners from 381 races during December and shows a healthy profit to boot.
Alan McCabe
Once again, the sample is relatively small as McCabe has only held a licence since 2006. However, being a relatively small name, I think punters have been quite slow to realise his potential, and also the money that can be made following his horses. There probably won't be a huge amount of bets, but I'm hoping he can keep up his good December form this year.
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Comments, questions or criticism - we welcome feedback of all variety so feel free to make a post below.
Comments (6)
Hi Steven, yeah it's been a tough month to be honest and if things continue, we'll be looking at a loss.
McCabe has been the big let down with no winners as yet. Alan King has shown a 25% strike rate and a profit to Betfair SP (as has Williams). David Pipe has also been a bit of a let down with just two winners. Jarvis hasn't had many horses run.
I feel slightly unlucky at some of the horses that were placed. Incomparable for example, was second at 23.0
I'll still follow McCabe cautiously albeit with reduced stakes. However, I'll record the end results here to full stakes which is only fair since I posted him up as one to follow.
Despite a possible loss this month, the overall 'trainers to follow' bank is still quite healthy - but a big priced winner wouldn't go amiss!
Wayne Bailey | 16 December 2008
We're fighting back!
A few big prices get us back in the game including an Alan King 17.5 special today :-)
Wayne Bailey | 19 December 2008
were on the run again wayne
all we need now is the pipe stable to get going.
steve davidson | 19 December 2008
Well as the month draws to a close, I'm pretty disappointed to say the least. At one stage, we were roughly 10pts ahead to Betfair SP with King and Williams firing them home. King's form tailed off badly at the end of the month however.
McCabe and Pipe? The less said about those the better! They really had a terrible month and it's knocked a considerable chunk off the overall profit.
With the benefit of hindsight, it was a mistake to include McCabe and Pipe as they haven't proved themselves over a number of years. I sided with potential rather than experience and got badly burned. An expensive lesson, but the good ones in life usually are. Williams however, performed very well as usual and stopped the losses somewhat.
There's no place to hide in this game, so I'll have to put my hands up and say I called it wrong in December. Simple as that.
The good news is that the 'trainers to follow' column is still showing a profit of £633.30 to £10 since it started in October and that's still very reasonable. It's a shame we lost a big chunk this month, but that's racing I suppose.
I've had a look at many trainers for January, but to be honest, I'm not confident in posting up any to follow as there are no stand-out performers. I'll write an article next month should any come up for February.
Wayne Bailey | 31 December 2008
Oh how cruel the racing gods can be.
Just to rub salt in the wound, Alan King sends out an 18.0 and a 26.0 winner - ONE DAY after I stop following him.
It's a tough game sometimes, that's for sure. :-(
Wayne Bailey | 02 January 2009
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hi wayne.
halfway through the month and i am getting a little concerned at the mccabe stable wayne,quite a few of his horses have run poorly,do you still plan to follow or do you think that something is amiss.pretty confident about the rest though.
have a good christmas,all the best for 2009.
steve davidson | 15 December 2008