Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 17 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Following a reader request, Wayne Bailey takes a look at the record of multiple classic winning trainer John Gosden...

Jumps fans still have Aintree and Punchestown to look forward to, but those who follow the level are gearing themselves up for the new season with the Curragh kicking off the flat in Ireland this Sunday, and Doncaster hot on its heels in the UK on March 29th. Now is a good time to start looking ahead to the trainers that can help make it pay.

Older readers may remember John Gosden's father; John "Towser" Gosden, who was training horses for nearly four decades prior to his death in 1967. John junior has been around for a long time himself now, and gained valuable experience along the way including stints with the maestro Vincent O'Brien in Ireland, and Tommy Doyle in the U.S.

I've come up with a few angles to consider when backing his horses which I hope will be useful somewhere along the way in the 2009 flat season. Again, I must state that these are not 'systems' to be followed blindly, it's merely information to think about when having a bet. It's up to each punter to use or discard it as they see fit and I urge readers to consider a number of variables when placing any bet.

(All data is from 2003 to the present)

Courses

Racing at HQ is always competitive but Gosden can hold his own at Newmarket where he shows a strike-rate of 19%. Of the six years analysed, he showed a profit in four seasons. Indeed in 2008, had you stuck a tenner of each of his horses there, you'd have shown a profit of over £800. When Jimmy Fortune is on board, you can have extra confidence as the duo have shown a profit year-on-year for the past five seasons and have an average strike-rate of 26%. The sample is small, but Gosden is also worth noting at Southwell, where he's had eight wins from 19 races and shows a decent level stakes profit thus far.

Prices

A bit of a no-brainer this, but when you see the money arrive for Gosden's horses you can be confident of a good run for your money. Not everyone is comfortable backing at these prices but horses that went off at 1/2 or less have won 32 races from 44, and break even to level stakes. On a somewhat related note, Gosden horses that go off as favourites in non-handicaps have won 169 races from 385, and show a small profit of £83 to £10 level stakes.

Age

Gosden's two-year-olds are always worth noting and perform consistently well over the years. However, if you exclude his debutantes, he's had 118 winners from 457 races and shows a profit of over £1130 to £10 stakes since 2003.

Sex of horse

I've only checked back to 2004 with this one but interestingly, Gosden's female horses perform poorly when compared with their male counterparts with overall strike-rates of 13.5% and 20% respectively.

Month

September is the time of the year that usually sees Gosden firing on all cylinders and he's had 81 winners from 385 races in that month since 2003. Had you put £10 on each, you'd be £1162 better off today with four winning years from six.

Jockeys

Frankie Dettori, Steve Drowne and Jimmy Fortune all have strike-rates above 20% when riding for Gosden. Fortune performs particularly well in maidens with 121 winners from 520 races (23%). However, a small loss was incurred if blindly backed.