Looking for profit in November? Be sure to note these trainers

Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 04 November 2008 / 19 Comments

Wayne Bailey's October trainers showed a profit of £975 to £10 stakes. Here he profiles the men who have traditionally flourished in November...

With Halloween out of the way, it's time to start the long run-in to Christmas time. I love Christmas as much as anyone, but not in early November! I refuse to get into festive mode until at least December, but it's hard to ignore the retailers baying for our money as soon as October comes to a close. Make sure you keep a few quid separate from the shopping money however, for the trainers who traditionally do well at this time of year.

Trainers are creatures of habit, and following those habits can often pay its way. Following particular trainers at certain times of the year has made me some nice profits in the past, and October was no exception.

In a previous article, I advised following Keith Goldsworthy and Marco Botti. Combined, they had eight winners from 51 bets, and had you stuck a tenner on each, your profit would have been £975.30 to Betfair SP. 19 of their horses were placed, but I was backing in the win markets only.

I must admit, October was an exceptional month, and the profit figures are higher than normal. Still, if I can do half as well in November, I'll be a happy man. A word of caution to those readers who may still be using the bookies: The October profit to traditional SP was only £577.50 to £10 stakes; a marked difference to that of Betfair SP. If you are not using the exchanges, wake up and smell the coffee. I don't need to apologise for giving Betfair a plug here - the figures speak for themselves.

Anyway, now that we've October out of the way, it's time to move on to the trainers to note for November. When selecting trainers to note, I follow a number of steps. Firstly, (and most importantly) I check for trainers who show a consistent strike rate in the given month, over a number of years. Consistency is key. I then drop those who don't show regular profit to go along with that strike rate. Often, the major yards will get dropped as they tend to be over-backed, and it's difficult to make money there. The last step is often the hardest, and that involves looking at the current horses in training in the yard, and trying to decide if they are likely to keep the trends going.

Like all types of betting, there is risk involved. All trainers are prone to bad spells now and then, which could end up costing you money - so the usual warnings apply. However, I'm confident enough in the below trainers to put my own money down and, once again, I'll report back at the end of the month with a profit/loss update:

T.G. Mills

Terry Mills doesn't send out too many horses at this time of the year, but of those that do run, over half are placed, with 30% actually winning. Had you placed £10 on each, you'd be £235 better off today.

Jim Best

Along with his brother Tom, Jim Best has been doing quite well in recent times, and has had plenty of winners since taking out a trainers' licence a number of years ago. In November, he shows a 27% strike rate, and a profit of £237.50 to £10 stakes.

V R A Dartnall

Victor Dartnall took out a licence ten years ago and since then, he's been a model of consistency with his win rate rarely dropping below the 20% mark. At this time of the year, he shows a 27% strike-rate and a profit of £457 to £10 stakes.

Charles O' Brien

Keep an eye on the Irish racing for these selections. There' won't be too many I'd suspect, but O'Brien has a win rate of around 25% at this time of the year, and shows a small profit if blindly backed.

John E Kiely

A horse form Kiely's yard broke my heart on Sunday, and I don't think I'm quite over it just yet! I backed Coast, which went off at [124.0] on Betfair and ended up getting beaten by a neck. Amazingly, the traditional SP was just [26.0]. Despite my disappointment after that race, I still have faith in the yard at this time of the year, and hope he can fire a few home this month.

* All data is from 2003 onwards

As usual we welcome your feedback, comments and suggestions - so make a post below!

Comments (19)

stevie d | 04 November 2008

just stumbled over your articles wayne.i for one will be giving your trainers for november a go.
Wayne Bailey | 05 November 2008

Cheers mate. Hope you were on The Venetian just there at 14.0
stevie d | 05 November 2008

sure was wayne at 16.0,have been reading some more of your articles and find them fascinating.
would like to study this aspect of trainer/month betting,as you say consistency is the key.how do i find this info,could you please point me in the right direction.one trainer who looks well worth following is nick williams,what do you think.
Paul Gregory | 05 November 2008

Hi Wayne........ my wife came across your article and we both have decided to give it a try...thanks for sharing this information and best of luck...

Paul and Tanya
Wayne Bailey | 06 November 2008

Thanks for the comments folks. A good start for the month, so let's hope the momentum continues.

As usual, only bet with money you can afford to lose - as you know, there are no certainties in this game!

Best of luck.
Wayne Bailey | 06 November 2008

Hi Stevie

A lot of my betting is based on stats and trends, so I use data mining software. You could do some of it the old way on the racing post, but personally, I use www.horseracebase.com (a donation site). Other sites/programmes for stats betting include Racing Systems Builder, Timeform-i, Raceform interactive and of course, the custom reports(free) on the Adrian Massey site.

I've had some nice wins on Nick Williams' horses this year, but his best months of the year are August and September where he has a strike rate of around 25%. In October/November, that drops significantly to around 11%.
Ged Simpson | 09 November 2008

Hello Wayne

I appreciate your Trainers in Focus articles and as you point out used in accordance with your comments are worthwhile.

Is it possible to put up some stats strictly on the All Weather Courses and also say whether there are any more in planning. I have heard Newbury, Newcastle, South Wales and Scotland.

This would be appreciated.

Ged Simpson
Wayne Bailey | 09 November 2008

Hi Ged, thanks for the comments. What AW stats are you after exactly? Let me know and I'll fish them out.

There's talk about installing AW alongside a number of courses, but with the so-called credit crunch, I think a number are reviewing their plans. I've learned from Great Leighs not to believe it until I see it happen!
Ged Simpson | 10 November 2008

Hello Wayne

I am interested the All Weather Tracks and stats from November to March each Year. I am looking for stats on Favourites and Trainers very much like the ideas that you put forward in your Trainers in Focus. Short prices for Place/win bets. I have been watching the All Weather grow and the class improve and better prize money.

Hope you see what I am getting at?
Wayne Bailey | 11 November 2008

Hi Jed, hope some of these stats help. All data is from 2003 onwards and is November to March only. All profit/loss is to £1 stakes.

All Weather non handicap favourites:

TRACK ..... BETS ..... WINS ..... WIN STRIKE RATE ..... PROFIT TO £1 ..... PLACES ..... PLACE STRIKE RATE

Great Leighs ..... 4 ..... 0 ..... 0.00% ..... -£4.00 ..... 2 ..... 50.00%
Kempton ..... 208 ..... 72 ..... 34.62% ..... -£25.19 ..... 141 ..... 67.79%
Lingfield ..... 850 ..... 294 ..... 34.59% ..... -£78.86 ..... 541 ..... 63.65%
Southwell ..... 759 ..... 265 ..... 34.91% ..... -£35.06 ..... 513 ..... 67.59%
Wolverhampton ..... 973 ..... 332 ..... 34.12% ..... -£120.42 ..... 652 ..... 67.01%

All Weather handicap favourites:

TRACK ..... BETS ..... WINS ..... WIN STRIKE RATE ..... PROFIT TO £1 ..... PLACES ..... PLACE STRIKE RATE

Great Leighs ..... 3 ..... 0 ..... 0.00% ..... -£3.00 ..... 1 ..... 33.33%
Kempton ..... 308 ..... 88 ..... 28.57% ..... -£15.50 ..... 181 ..... 58.77%
Lingfield ..... 938 ..... 268 ..... 28.57% ..... -£7.07 ..... 552 ..... 58.85%
Southwell ..... 736 ..... 232 ..... 31.52% ..... -£12.05 ..... 454 ..... 61.68%
Wolverhampton ..... 1088 ..... 289 ..... 26.56% ..... -£159.98 ..... 628 ..... 57.72%

Some notable stats:

• Favourites in maiden races at Kempton have won 37 races from 86, and show a profit of £1.70
• Favourites in claiming/selling races at Lingfield have won 85 races from 235, and show a profit of £5.14
• Favourites in maiden races at Southwell have won 89 races from 214, and show a profit of £5.58

Below are the trainers to note at each course. The trainer must have had at least 25 runners at the track to be included. Great Leighs was excluded as it had not yet opened last winter.

Kempton:

TRAINER ..... BETS ..... WINS ..... WIN STRIKE RATE ..... PROFIT TO £1 ..... PLACES ..... PLACE STRIKE RATE

Johnston, M ..... 49 ..... 15 ..... 30.61% ..... £28.07 ..... 21 ..... 42.86%
Moore, G L ..... 109 ..... 25 ..... 22.94% ..... £31.43 ..... 46 ..... 42.20%
Wigham, M ..... 41 ..... 9 ..... 21.95% ..... -£1.79 ..... 17 ..... 41.46%
Burke, K R ..... 28 ..... 6 ..... 21.43% ..... £8.53 ..... 13 ..... 46.43%
Osborne, J A ..... 50 ..... 10 ..... 20.00% ..... £18.43 ..... 23 ..... 46.00%

Lingfield

TRAINER ..... BETS ..... WINS ..... WIN STRIKE RATE ..... PROFIT TO £1 ..... PLACES ..... PLACE STRIKE RATE

Dascombe, Tom ..... 26 ..... 9 ..... 34.62% ..... £22.50 ..... 15 ..... 57.69%
Prescott, Sir Mark ..... 64 ..... 17 ..... 26.56% ..... £6.47 ..... 29 ..... 45.31%
Loder, D R ..... 68 ..... 18 ..... 26.47% ..... £2.51 ..... 28 ..... 41.18%
Chapple-Hyam, P W ..... 58 ..... 14 ..... 24.14% ..... £24.74 ..... 22 ..... 37.93%
Chapple-Hyam, Jane ..... 29 ..... 7 ..... 24.14% ..... £3.73 ..... 11 ..... 37.93%

Southwell

TRAINER ..... BETS ..... WINS ..... WIN STRIKE RATE ..... PROFIT TO £1 ..... PLACES ..... PLACE STRIKE RATE

Haggas, W J ..... 41 ..... 14 ..... 34.15% ..... £1.79 ..... 19 ..... 46.34%
Jarvis, W ..... 40 ..... 12 ..... 30.00% ..... £21.07 ..... 23 ..... 57.50%
Meehan, B J ..... 30 ..... 8 ..... 26.67% ..... £4.02 ..... 18 ..... 60.00%
Boyle, J R ..... 85 ..... 22 ..... 25.88% ..... £27.54 ..... 40 ..... 47.06%
Morrison, H ..... 102 ..... 25 ..... 24.51% ..... £40.95 ..... 54 ..... 52.94%

Wolverhampton

TRAINER ..... BETS ..... WINS ..... WIN STRIKE RATE ..... PROFIT TO £1 ..... PLACES ..... PLACE STRIKE RATE

Pitt, T J ..... 45 ..... 13 ..... 28.89% ..... £4.01 ..... 24 ..... 53.33%
Loder, D R ..... 40 ..... 11 ..... 27.50% ..... £12.26 ..... 22 ..... 55.00%
Johnston, M ..... 182 ..... 48 ..... 26.37% ..... £30.55 ..... 85 ..... 46.70%
Perratt, Miss L A ..... 38 ..... 10 ..... 26.32% ..... £30.70 ..... 19 ..... 50.00%
Noseda, J ..... 36 ..... 9 ..... 25.00% ..... -£3.78 ..... 19 ..... 52.78%

Hope this helps.
Ged Simpson | 11 November 2008

Many thanks Wayne just what I was looking for much appreciated.
Wayne Bailey | 15 November 2008

Having some poor luck on this at the moment, with more than one of horses third getting placed (many at very big prices) but few actually winning. There's been quite a number of double figure prices chinned this month :-(

The 123/1 shot that was beaten on the line is still haunting me and I could do with a turnaround in the second half of the month!
Wayne Bailey | 17 November 2008

One winner yesterday, plus Salt Of The Earth today at 8.7 puts this back in profit (just about!).
Wayne Bailey | 18 November 2008

Another profitable day with Spanchil Hill going in at 4.6 - however, it was tough to watch Blueberry Ice come second at 26.0 :-(
Wayne Bailey | 01 December 2008

End of month review:

Bets: 75
Wins: 13
Strike Rate: 17.33%

Profit to £10 stakes: £190.50 (Betfair SP)
Profit to £10 stakes: £52.60 (industry SP)
steve davidson | 01 December 2008

well done wayne,not a bad profit for november.keep it up mate.remembered the pipe and king horses for december,started a touch early on saturday with madison in the hennessey at 50.0 so things are looking good. many thanks wayne.
Allan | 02 December 2008

Congratulations Wayne, another excellent month. Have thoroughly enjoyed following the said trainers.All of your articles are always informative and interesting. Am currently following the jockey/trainers combinations and this also looks extremely promising. Any plans to follow up November trainers with some useful advice for December? Seem to remember you saying a while back that you had been previously successful following Alan King during this particular month. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.Thanks.......Allan
Ged simpson | 02 December 2008

Hello Wayne

Thanks for November - look forward to an early Christmas present hopefully for both of us!
Wayne Bailey | 02 December 2008

Thanks for the kind words guys - we always appreciate the feedback.

Allan, you can find December's trainers to follow here: http://betting.betfair.ie/horse-racing/trainer-jockey-profiles/trainers-to-follow-in-december-featuring-alan-king-david-pip-021208.html

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Looking for profit in November? Be sure to note these trainers

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