Backing a Jeremy Noseda trained horse? Read this first...

Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 15 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Following a reader request, Wayne Bailey puts the record of the Newmarket trainer under the microscope.

Firstly, a big thanks to those who have emailed me (and posted comments here) with kind words regarding my occasional trainer profiles.

However, on a cautionary note, I want to clear up one small point that someone asked me via email...

While analysing a trainer's record can be a very worthwhile experience, I don't intend the reader to use the stats as some sort of 'system'. If for example, I note that a certain trainer performs well at Wolves, I don't suggest you go and blindly back every nag he sends there. Trainer data is merely one weapon in the huge overall puzzle that is a horse race.

Trainer data must be interpreted appropriately. Blindly backing horses is rarely a good idea, but if a trainer performs consistently well in a particular type of race for example, I think it's worth noting.

Simple as that. The reader can decide themselves whether they want to use this information or not.

I believe however, that punters should weigh up all the variables available to them before placing their bet and not just rely on one method of selection alone.

Anyway, that gets me in the clear, so on with the important business!

Jeremy Noseda

Based in Newmarket, Noseda has been training horses since 1998. He comes to the game with a good CV having previously worked for John Dunlop, John Gosden and later the massive Godolphin operation. His first classic win came in 2006 when Araafa won the Irish 2000 Guineas, and in the same year, he hit the big time when Sixties Icon went on to win the St Leger at York. Here are his essential profit pointers:

(All data is from 2003 onwards)

Courses

Noseda rarely sends his horses to Brighton, but when he does - take note. Since 2003, he's had 11 winners from 17 horses, and had you stuck a tenner on each, you'd be £165 better off today. Other courses of note are Lingfield, York and Windsor, where he has a collective strike rate of 21%, and shows a profit of £630 to £10 stakes.

Prices

Unsurprisingly, horses at the shorter end of the market provide the backer with the most wins, and one can have extra confidence if the money arrives for a Noseda horse. Indeed since 2003, 318 Noseda horses have gone off favourite, with 138 of those winning (43.4%). Placing £10 on each would have shown a profit of just over £100.

Jockeys

While the Noseda/Dettori combination has been very successful to date, anything the 'housewives favourite jockey' rides is usually over backed, so it's hard to make a profit from following Frankie. Despite his troubles, Shane Kelly has been getting a number of rides from the yard, and shows a win rate of one in five, with a small profit if blindly backed.

Age

While both ages show a loss if blindly backed, horses aged two and three perform far better than their older counterparts.
Horses aged older than this show a marked decline as the years pass, and should be avoided for betting purposes.

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