Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 12 November 2009 / Leave a comment

There'll be plenty of Cheltenham clues on offer in Ireland this weekend as Champion Hurdle hopefuls Hurricane Fly and Solwhit lock horns. Mullins' five-year-old oozes class, but his price is simply too short writes Wayne Bailey.

"Judging by Sunday’s early markets, this horse may get backed like defeat is out of the question - but am I the only one that thinks that such a short price is not acceptable for his first run of the season?"

This Sunday's Grade 1 Dobbins & Madigans at Punchestown Hurdle (traditionally known as the Morgiana) doesn't offer any outstanding backing opportunities but it does give us a chance to assess the form of Hurricane Fly and Solwhit who both trade at single figure prices for the 2010 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

Indeed, the former is as low as [4.0] for the big one in March and there's no doubt that the Willie Mullins trained five-year-old has exceptional talent. Despite being one of Ireland's best novices last season, Hurricane Fly never made it to Cheltenham (due to injury) and Mullins had to settle for a win in the Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown instead. Judging by Sunday's early markets, this horse may get backed like defeat is out of the question - but am I the only one who thinks that such a short price is not acceptable for his first run of the season?

Of course you have to be brave, mad, or both to take on any Mullins horse these days and his 2009/2010 team is one of his best ever; but the great man himself has admitted that he's a little behind where he'd like to be and one or two of his horses will come on for a run. After all, as he says: "It's only November!"

A lot of people did their dough ante-post on Hurricane Fly for Cheltenham 2009 and will be looking to make their money back on the animal this season - but it's always a dangerous game when you feel a horse 'owes' you something, and I'm sure we've all followed certain horses over the cliff before.

The Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle was a pretty average renewal but as the old saying goes, he could only beat the horses that showed up on the day - and Hurricane Fly was clearly head and shoulders above the field.

Solwhit (who trades at [9.0] for the Champion Hurdle) provides the main opposition on Sunday and has serious claims. Charles Byrnes' five-year-old has now won eight of his 12 races including the John Smith's Aintree Hurdle. But it was in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle that he really showed his worth - and among the horses he left in his wake that day were Punjabi, Quevega, Sizing Europe and Muirhead. Two miles on soft ground will be ideal and with all the hype around the Mullins horse, his price is rather inflated.

But rather than backing Solwhit, I'm going lay Hurricane Fly instead and have the field running for me just in case. Laying a short Mullins horse like this leaves me open to embarrassment should he sluice in - but my tissue prices have Hurricane Fly at evens, so if I'm going to follow my own opinion, I've got to take him on.

***

On the same card, Sizing Europe is back in action in the Craddockstown Novice Chase. He should have absolute bucket loads in hand here and it will be a big shock if he doesn't win. However, as mentioned before on these pages, this horse has cost me a fortune between backing and laying so I'm going to take a watching brief for now!

Tags: Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham, Hurricane Fly, Irish Racing, Punchestown, Sizing Europe, Solwhit, Wayne Bailey