Irish Racing Betting: What's the best method of analysis to give you an edge?

005 Irish Racing / Simon Rowlands / 21 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Simon Rowlands has been investigating the "en-vogue" methods of racing analysis. See if you agree with him and check out the stats on the top Irish trainers ahead of this weekend's big races.

In the world of horse racing analysis, "getting an edge" is all-important but seemingly increasingly difficult. Simply assessing the form accurately - in terms of handicap ratings - was sufficient for me when I first got involved. Time analysis used to be a well-kept secret, but now every Tom, Nick and Harry seems to be doing it, or at least some version of it.

In succession: draw angles, pace angles and paddock angles, amongst others, have been put under the spotlight, though the last two still offer plenty of opportunities for those with the time, the inclination and the expertise to capitalise.

There is probably an edge to be had with so-called trends analysis at present. Not because it is neglected, but because it is over-valued and usually done crudely. It can be well worth looking beyond the obvious and going against the trends crowd, as Katchit (first five-year-old to win the Champion Hurdle in donkeys' years) illustrated.

One area that still seems to be under-valued is trainer form. I know this, as I am guilty of it at times. Your selection may have the best form, a good draw and conditions to suit it, but if everything else from the yard is running like a drain you will be lucky if you have found the only exception.

As with trends analysis, it is necessary to use a certain amount of sophistication and not to jump to conclusions prematurely. A trainer without a winner for a month might have been repeatedly peppering the pin. One who has had a couple of recent winners may just be in respectable form judged on a longer time scale.

With that in mind, I decided to look at the performances of the top ten Irish trainers leading in to the big Guineas meeting at the Curragh this weekend.

Looking at the period from 26th April to 20th May and considering only domestic performances (runners abroad usually contest much stronger races in general), it is no surprise to find Aidan O'Brien coming out top in terms of winners, winning percentages and placed percentages. Less expected is that he is a bit down the pecking order in terms of percentage of rivals beaten in that period. Many of his horses have seemed to need their first starts of the season, and that has had an effect.

This measurement, which crucially allows for field size and drills down beneath the obvious win and place figures, has Dermot Weld and Jim Bolger top. Indeed, Dermot Weld has been top over a rolling three or four-week period since the Flat season proper started in Ireland. Bolger, meanwhile, would figure first on 71.2% of rivals beaten if his foreign runners - namely New Approach, Saoirse Abu and Lush Lashes - were taken into account.

Tommy Stack made an excellent start to the season, but has just begun to slip back (was second in terms of percentage of rivals beaten until recently), whereas David Wachman has gone the other way. Wachman has climbed from a miserable figure of around 40% of rivals beaten in April to about 66% since May 5th. Some of his horses are better handicapped now than they might have been, and Wachman is a man to respect in handicaps: he showed a level-stakes profit in them from 2005 to 2007 inclusive.

How to put this all into practice then? Well, while much of the attention will, rightly, be on the Irish 2,000 Guineas on Saturday and 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, there are plenty of other rich pickings to be had. Bolger looks to have the likeliest winner of the Marble Hill Stakes earlier on Saturday's Curragh card in Blas Ceoil and trains a promising sort in Carraigoona in the concluding handicap.

The in-form Weld could well shake up the big two in the 2,000 with Famous Name, who can be backed at [10.0] to win on Betfair and who is worth considering for a place as well.

Wachman, disappointingly, has no runners entered in handicaps over the two days, but he does have an interesting contender for the Ridgewood Pearl Stakes on Saturday in Navajo Moon. This one ran as if very much in need of the race in a listed event at Gowran recently and can be expected to go much closer now. A win and place bet is likely to make plenty of appeal.

Whatever happens, I think David Wachman is a man to watch. Man.