Betfair Betting Blog

Betting news and tips

Horseracing

Irish Horseracing Tips: Thursday at Punchestown

Irish Racing RSS / Wayne Bailey / 14 October 2009 / 2 Comments

Will Sizing Europe prove more reliable over fences?

Wayne Bailey marks your card as Sizing Europe, Harchibald and Bobs Pride all make an appearance in the Buck House Novice Chase.

Best Bets:
2:45 – Back Alice Bradys Call to place.
4:15 - Back Bobs Pride to win, Lay Sizing Europe.
4:45 – Back Chelsea Harbour to place.

Dear oh dear, I have one of those racing conundrums - and I'm cursing Bert Black for giving us the option to click blue or pink.

You see, Sizing Europe comes back to Punchestown today (16:15) - a horse that cost me a fortune last year and I'm finding it difficult to decide if he's a back or lay. Back in January 2008, I went up to Leopardstown to watch the AIG Champion Hurdle and this horse blew me away. He looked extremely exciting when winning, and I had my mind made up that he was going to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

Anyway, a quick browse through his record will reveal that he never lived up to expectations and I certainly wasn't the only one who done my brains at the festival that year as he went off at [3.34] on Betfair. He has since lost three hurdle races - but put in a near perfect performance when making his chasing debut at this course back in May; and he looked strong and fit, just like the old days.

A good case could be made for both the back and lay sides. In his defence, he did the job last-time-out over fences and perhaps his injury problems are over. But on the other side of the coin, the horses he beat that day were nothing to write home about and he hasn't had a real test over the lager obstacles as yet. It may be too early to call it a comeback.

Throw Harchibald and Bob's Pride into the mix and we have a very interesting contest indeed. As you all know, the former has raced with the best of them over the years but he's no spring chicken and who knows how he'll take to fences on his debut in that arena. The latter ran a cracker in his second chase race at Galway; and a win on the Flat earlier that week didn't take much out of him. Again, the race wasn't the strongest ever but he looks a tough sort and I wonder if he's going to be a bit more reliable than Sizing Europe?

It's a darn tricky one, but I've decided that I'm going to side with Bob's Pride at these prices and click pink for Sizing Europe. I will admit that I'm nervous about this race however and stakes will be kept small. It's a fascinating one folks so your thoughts and comments are most welcome.

In the opening maiden hurdle (2:45), Alice Bradys Call looks the value bet and the forecast price of [7.6] is decent enough. This horse was third to Kempes at Fairyhouse and has some good races under the belt on the level too. He's shaping up to be a decent animal but sometimes struggles to get the head in front so the sensible option is a place back just in case.

I'm also going to utilise the place market for the Punchestown Star `best For Racing Coverage' Chase (4:45) and back Chelsea Harbour. There are only two places up for grabs so this could be tricky - but if his jumping doesn't let him down, he may have enough to edge out Royal County Star. I'm not denying that Royal County Star has serious claims here - but this is a very tight affair and the booking of Ruby Walsh has seen his price pushed too low.


Best Bets:

2:45 - Back Alice Bradys Call to place
4:15 - Back Bobs Pride to win, Lay Sizing Europe
4:45 - Back Chelsea Harbour to place

***


Tags: Alice Bradys Call, Bobs Pride, Chelsea Harbour, Irish Racing, Punchestown, Royal County Star, Sizing Europe, Wayne Bailey

Comments (2)

  1. Simon Rowlands | 15 October 2009

    Good stuff, Wayne.

    Like you, I was sold on Sizing Europe for most of his career as a hurdler and don't know which version is going to turn up today. Personally, I'll be sitting this one out!

    Alice Bradys Call looks a solid place proposition: well done to those shrewdies that got around 2.0.

    Have you seen the form of Edward O'Grady? 7 winners from 12 runners, Flat and jumps, this month. Indeed, the only horse he has trained that has run poorly of late is the only one I backed, Bernabeu!

    He sends out Rhum and Coke in the newcomers' bumper and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this one do well.

    Simon

  2. Wayne Bailey | 15 October 2009

    Thanks Simon – unfortunately I called it wrong on Sizing Europe today and have done my brains and my dough on that horse once again! A bad day at the office but that's racing I guess. I see that some have cut him to 10/1 for the Arkle, but he'll have to be good to take on the likes of Mikael D'Haguenet (if that horse doesn't go the RSA route ) and I'm going to avoid backing or laying him for a while I think.

    **

    Edward O'Grady has got to be one of the most versatile trainers about and always has a trick or two up his sleeve. I can't say I backed some of his recent winners but I'd agree that he's definitely one to keep an eye on and I've huge respect for the man. His record at Cheltenham has not been matched in the modern era – which says a lot considering some of the big guns and the horses they have these days.

Post a comment







£25 Free Bet Join Today

How to claim your free £25 bet:
1. Open your account (3 mins)
2. Make a deposit into your account and place your bets
3. If you lose any of your bets, we'll cover you up to £25
Free £25 Sports Bet, Join Today

$10 Free Poker Bonus Play Now

Get $10 Free for all new players. Just register a credit card to claim.
Join today and get your $10 Free at Betfair Poker

£50 Casino Bonus Play Now

100% deposit bonus up to £50 for all new casino players. Just join and play to claim.
Join Today. Click here to claim your £50 Casino Bonus

Refer and Earn Go

Earn substantial rewards every time you introduce someone new to Betfair, Betfair Poker, Betfair Casino or Betfair Games
Refer and Earn Today

Events Calendar

© Betfair 2007–9 | Contact Betting.Betfair team on: haveyoursay@betfair.com


Betfair is the Official Betting Partner of Manchester United and Barcelona Football Teams.
Betfair UK | Australia | Canada | Online sázení | Væddemål | Wetten | στοιχήματα | Apuestas | Paris en ligne | Ireland | Scommesse | Norge | Онлайн ставки | Vedonlyönti | Zakłady | Vadhållning | 网上投注 | Betting Education | Designed and implemented by Lift