Irish Racing / Johnny Ward / 20 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Cheltenham may seem far away but five months passes swiftly in racing: it certainly does not seem so long since Sea The Stars embarked on the first of his winning Group Ones this year in Newmarket. This blog will look at three novice chasers yet to encounter a fence and, perhaps, not in the minds of some punters despite some high-class hurdle form.

"Nine festival winners in 2009 was a very healthy return from an Irish viewpoint and our armoury ought to be strong in 2010 too."

There is an argument in Ireland that we defer excessively to Cheltenham results to judge the calibre of season a horse or trainer had; indeed, there are so many top-class Grade Ones in Ireland that we arguably do not fully appreciate.

This is something of a background to putting up a few horses to follow in this blog, as at least one of them - while not appealing altogether as an antepost prospect for Cheltenham - could well prove something of a beast in soft-ground Irish races run at a less hectic gallop. Nine festival winners in 2009 was a very healthy return from an Irish viewpoint and our armoury ought to be strong in 2010 too.

Pandorama (six-year-old gelding, trained by N Meade. Race record: 11121)
Having invested antepost in the son of Flemingsfirth of last year's festival, one was understandably disappointed that Noel Meade decided not to send him there - but it was obviously very much a view taken with the future in mind. For last year, even while he was hacking up in novice hurdles, was all about the future for Pandorama, who has graduated from the point-to-point scene. Back last December in Navan, he was sent off at [1.29] on Betfair to beat a little-known maiden hurdle winner called Mikael D'Haguenet.
Pandorama's status regressed there and then - but obviously the winner's subsequent performances illustrated that the Meade team had nothing to be ashamed of. Moreover, the feeling was that he ran flat in Navan, and Pandorama - while very lucky to beat Cousin Vinny in February at Leopardstown - was still running a decent race over a grossly inadequate trip (two and a quarter miles).
Given his relentless galloping style, the six-year-old will probably be at his best at a three-mile trip and he has won a bumper on nice ground, so it is certainly possible to envisage him as an RSA Chase candidate where he is currently trading at [42.0]. His hurdling technique gave the impression that he would be better over fences and it he should not be opposed in his early races, as the yard's horses are going very well, with Casey Jones winning a very decent event first-time out, in spite of the weights being against him. Pandorama is put forward as something of a forgotten horse.

Kempes (five-year-old gelding, trained by WP Mullins. (Jumps) Race record: 4110120)
Willie Mullins has the type of problem every trainer would grasp without a moment's thought in the novice chase division: how to keep his stars apart. Mikael D'Haguenet, Fiveforthree (pending a lack of his perennial setbacks) and Cousin Vinny are all being aimed at fences this season. One that may be a dark one with a view to the Arkle is Kempes, who was the subject of a sustained antepost gamble for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last March. A bad mistake at the first cost him whatever chance he had that day, but the former Frances Crowley inmate is better than that.
Indeed, the Intikhab-bred was rated over 100 on the flat, and showed an unexpected versatility regarding underfoot conditions when laughing at Oscar Looby in a novices' hurdle (heavy) at Navan in January. However, Kempes is better when the ground is better and it should be noted - forgotten, no doubt, by many - that he finished two lengths ahead of Go Native when second on soft ground to Hurricane Fly at the Punchestown festival.
In this week's Racing Post stable tour, Mullins notes that Kempes "is a fine, big strong horse with a lot of ability. I think he'll have more respect for his fences (than his hurdles)... he should be a force in two-mile novice chases."
Kempes' Punchestown effort is all the more laudable because he mad a desperate blunder early on and if he takes to fences, he certainly has the class to be a very strong Arkle contender where he is way back at [85.0].

Jered (seven-year-old gelding, trained by N Meade. Race record: 16312511113808)
As the figures above suggest, Jered's form tailed off last season, so his initial novice steeplechase outings will go a long way towards proving that he retains all his ability - or otherwise. He is of interest because he has always implied that whatever he achieved over hurdles, it would be inferior to what he would do when jumping a fence.
In an interview with Paul Carberry perhaps six weeks prior to Cheltenham last year, the jockey was admirably honest about Jered's Champion Hurdle prospects: he expressed grave reservations that the horse "jumped too big" to be a serious contender for that helter-skelter race. A blunder at each of the first two hurdles left Jered's backers throwing their dockets away. He was hampered three out but actually ran on nicely to finish eighth of 23.
Jered flopped at Punchestown but that was on heavy ground. Deep conditions have, as his pedigree suggests, been a major problem for Jered; the hope is that his breeding will also be an accurate guide as to how he will take to fences: as a son of Presenting, one can be very hopeful.
All in all, Jered's form leaves him with plenty of improvement to find to be a serious Arkle contender, but he could develop into a lively Arkle outsider at [60.0] and fancy antepost prices on Betfair should be considered. He stays further than two miles, should have his ideal conditions in March and has plenty of class (highest official hurdle rating of 158). He can be better than that this year.

Tags: Arkle, Cheltenham, Cousin Vinny, Fiveforthree, Jered, Kempes, Leopardstown, Noel Meade, Pandorama, Paul Carberry, Punchestown., RSA Chase, Supreme Novices' Hurdle