Tingle Creek Betting: Kauto's absence at least lends intrigue to the market

General / Graham Cunningham / 07 December 2007 / 1 Comments

Broadcaster Graham Cunnningham gives us another racing bulletin ahead of another big weekend over the jumps...

Time to add another option to the great head-to-head debates of modern life.
The Beatles or the Stones? The Scousers for me, though only just. Sampras or Federer? Maybe Pistol Pete on a final set tie break. Tiger or Big Jack? Sorry Jack, Tiger might just be the best there has ever been.

And last but not least, Denman or Kauto Star? The tide of public opinion on Betfair and in the media is flowing in Denman's direction, but Paul Nicholls is surely right to add some balance to the argument.

Like many others, I felt there was something irresistible about Denman at Newbury. My gut feeling is that his remorseless power might well settle all arguments come March 14, but he will need to be something very special to dethrone the current king.

In case you need reminding, Kauto Star has already bagged two Tingle Creek Chases, two Betfair Chases, a King George and a Gold Cup.

At a few weeks short of his eighth birthday he ought to be in his prime as a chaser and Timeform still rate him no less than 8lb ahead of the horse who occupies the next door box at Ditcheat.

In short, the Irish have a saying that eaten bread is soon forgotten. It certainly is, but anyone who forgets what Kauto Star has achieved in the last two years is taking a very serious risk indeed.

Monet's Garden can bloom as Kauto waits for Kempton

The fact that Kauto Star bypasses this weekend's Tingle Creek is bad news for Sandown's PR team but good news for those who prefer betting markets with a little more intrigue in them.

Voy Por Ustedes is bound to start favourite, and deservedly so given that he is high class and highly reliable, but for my money the value lies with a win bet on Monet's Garden and a saver at longer odds on Ashley Brook.

I'm glad to say the mental scars caused when Voy Por Ustedes scuppered a sizeable bet at 80-1 on Monet's Garden for the Arkle in 2006 have gradually faded.

Honest doctor, I only think about that near miss about once a day now. No matter, Monet's Garden showed he has returned in great fettle by taking the scalp of Kauto Star (who was conceding 14lb) in Aintree's Old Roan Chase and the deep ground is a plus for him back over two miles.

Ashley Brook is another with "previous" both in the Arkle and against Voy Por Ustedes. The latter holds him on more than one piece of form, but Ashley Brook still had plenty to give when he fell four out in the Old Roan and it's worth noting that he ran the race of his life to chase home the mighty Kauto in this race two years ago.

That man Nicholls....a case of too much information?

Most of the media mob love Paul Nicholls for his open nature. Others, myself included, dearly wish he would ditch his tiresome "that's showed the critics" mentality whenever one of his star jumpers lands a big one.

But recent events have only confirmed that even those closest to a fancied horse can never be sure as to how they will fare on a given day.

The Nicholls column in last Saturday's Racing Post gave precious little encouragement for Denman and Saintsaire before they bolted up, while Thursday's bulletin informed us that Trust Fund "will come on a lot for the run" before his demolition job at Wincanton.

So how much are we to read into the fact that Nicholls is highly likely to tell us on Saturday that very soft ground will be all against Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek?

As ever, it's a case of pay your money and take your choice. Or, as the late, great Marvin Gaye once said. "Believe half of what you see, son, and none of what you hear."

Moore the merrier as Ryan puts the last piece of his title jigsaw in place

What is the correct price for a busy Flat jockey to stay healthy during a full season?
Ask a dozen odds compilers and you would probably get half a dozen different answers, but the bookmakers who are offering 1.3 or better about Ryan Moore regaining the jockeys' championship in 2008 are dangling a very tempting carrot in front of those who like to wade in at short odds.

The plusses for Moore are hard to ignore. Firstly, as new stable jockey to Sir Michael Stoute he is guaranteed a regular supply of steering jobs from one of the most powerful yards in Europe.

Secondly, Moore has the dogged hunger which means the title will be high on his list of priorities after a 2007 campaign which saw him sidelined until after the Derby.

Thirdly, with Jamie Spencer set to focus more on quantity than quality in 2008 it already looks as though Seb Sanders will be the only serious obstacle in Moore's way.

And fourthly - and most importantly - Moore is just a brilliant rider with a capacity for getting the tactics just right with an uncanny regularity.

The momentum and contacts established during his epic battle for the 2007 title will be very valuable to Sanders.

But, granted a clear run with injuries, Moore will be pushing the 200-winner barrier in 2008. And that is a target that Sanders and the rest will find well-nigh impossible to keep pace with.

Comments (1)

1. Bernard B | 08 December 2007

   The Tingle creek Chase: A win bet on Monet's Garden and a saver at longer odds on Ashley Brook? oh dear :-(