Betfair Official Blog

Racing Betting: Graham Cunningham's weekend preview

Graham looks ahead to the weekend's action at Sandown and the last day of the Punchestown Festival. He also has some pointers for the Derby.

Royal looks the one to cut down Iris in Sandown showpiece

He is either a handicap good thing or the biggest one hit wonder since Vanilla Ice stormed the charts with Ice Ice Baby back in 1990. Those are the two possibilities facing Iris de Balme as the curtain comes down on the British jumps season this weekend and, sadly, I'm not quite sure which camp I fall into.

To my eternal shame, I had a sneaking fancy for Iris de Balme in last week's Scottish National and said as much on Racing UK only to fail to back it up with a bet. A text from a pal who had a tenner at 130 on Betfair only served to rub salt in the wound, but the question now is can Iris de Balme do what Hot Weld did last year and follow his Ayr romp by landing the bet365 Chase?

It would be very dangerous to underestimate him - he jumped and travelled like a dream on drying ground which plainly suited him - but on this occasion my angle in is to back Royal County Star with the aim of laying him back at [3.0] or less in running.

Tony Martin's reputation as a master plotter has taken a knock or two in Britain this spring, but Royal County Star is the sort of quietly prepared jumper he excels with and he travelled like a dream for a very long way when second to Hear The Echo in the Irish National recently.

He didn't find quite what seemed likely close home - hence the suggestion to look for some insurance with a lay in running - but he creeps in bang on ten stone here and looks much more progressive than the vast majority of this field.

Bolger needs a new approach to PR as the Derby picture takes shape

A spring morning in Co Carlow and invited media moles shake off hangovers watching Jim Bolger's 2000 Guineas and Derby favourite New Approach go through his paces.

But then lucky Jim drops a bombshell. New Approach isn't going for the Derby. Now you must understand that Bolger isn't "shying away" from Epsom with his latest stable star. In fact, he "never said he was going to Epsom." And anyway, he adds: "I don't think Epsom necessarily does all that much for a prospective stallion career."

Coming exactly twelve months after Bolger's Teofilo took a massive walk in the Guineas market while Bolger reportedly had a nap, we shouldn't be too surprised that New Approach's Derby backers have been left frustrated.

Sadly, nor should we be surprised that the racing media reported the shock news with precious little questioning. After all, biting the hand that feeds is rude whichever side of the Irish Sea you come from.

No-one doubts that horses change over time - and their targets alter accordingly - but it is a matter of record that Bolger explained New Approach's early lethargy in last year's Dewhurst by saying he had been training him "with Derbys in mind."

It seems safe to assume he didn't mean the French Derby, or the Greyhound Derby, and in the absence of other evidence cynics can be forgiven for thinking Bolger is indeed "shying away" from the biggest challenge any three-year-old can face.

For the moment, then, it seems the Betfair backers who staked over £20,000 on New Approach at 10-1 or under for Epsom have done their money.

But picture another scene. New Approach wins the Guineas staying on powerfully or runs on strongly into a place after being chopped for acceleration. In short, he shapes like he is crying out for middle distances.

Sheikh Mohammed is usually reluctant to interfere in running plans, but plans change over time. And, despite the Bolger bombshell, it could be that there is another surprise twist in the New Approach tale before Derby day dawns.

Hail the King....but Nicholls reigns supreme in the jumping stakes

Lastly this week, a few reflections as Punchestown rolls into its fifth and final day.

Paul Nicholls has come a very long way since he stood in the Ayr winners' enclosure and told me that he would never increase his string beyond 70 horses just to help his chances of seizing the trainers' title from Martin Pipe.

The Nicholls team has grown relentlessly since then, but the emphasis remains firmly on quality and the way he has kept his star performers rolling from winter to spring speaks volumes for his skill and enterprise.

Twist Magic, Natal and the vastly improved Neptune Collonges showcased his talents again this week and the fact that they aren't quite his A team provides a clear indication of how much ground the rest have to make up in order to match him.

Nicholls has nominated Alan King as the main danger to his position at the top and Blazing Bailey - who seems every bit as hungry for victory as his handler - crowned a landmark campaign for Robert Thornton with a typically gutsy Grade 1 success.

Cousin Vinny is now rated the best Bumper horse Timeform have ever run a slide rule over after his thrilling win on Tuesday, and his trainer Willie Mullins is already eyeing the 2008 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

But the latest jumps season will be remembered most for one man and four horses. Paul Nicholls goes into the summer having nurtured Denman, Kauto Star, Neptune Collonges and Master Minded into the four best chasers on either side of the Irish Sea.

Those four horses are aged eight, eight, seven and five respectively. And that is a sobering statistic for anyone hoping that the champion trainer's dominance can be threatened in the next year or two.