General / Jack Houghton / 17 December 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

A harsh run of losing bets has thrown the challenge into turmoil and Jack's returning to the sport he knows best in an attempt to pitch the column into profit again

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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Oh oh oh. What's occurring? I won't lie to you readers, the fortnight gone has not been kind to me. First up, the Turner Prize committee break with all tradition and selects a winner who can actually draw. Good news for the HB brigade; a disaster for the Betting Challenge bank. Then Ryan Giggs wins SPOTY. Don't even get me started. To cap things off, Tyrur Liz runs like a dog in the Greyhound Oaks, and the wrong meat-head beats up the right meat-head in that cage-fighting hullabaloo. All in all, fortunes have taken a dive.

No matter. In another online life, I have dominated the recently departed series of X Factor in a way not seen since Dominic dominated the Dominican domino championship of anno dominie 2008. If you like, it's been punting's Yin and Yang - one positive force; one negative - spinning around, bringing harmony to our lives.

Come to think of it, harmony can bog off. I want Yin and more Yin. And there's hope. If Chris Hollins can overcome Ricky Whittle in Saturday's Strictly final, the seas will calm, and the currently ocean-thrashed decks of HMS Houghton will regain a more even keel. Roll on the weekend.

To aid the calming of the seas, I'll be getting involved in the two big races at Ascot this Saturday afternoon.

Here's a strange fact about red-hot Long Walk Hurdle favourite Big Buck's: he's never raced right-handed. You're seriously telling me a horse is a [1.58] shot when he's never actually run - let alone won - going the requisite way round? That's the equivalent of a tennis player being odds on for the French Open having never played on clay. Actually, it's nothing like the same as that, but I do like to get the 'give-far-too-much-attention-to-too-small-a-detail-and-get-excited-about-it' bunch a titbit once in a while.

Yes, I think the horse is far too short a price, but on the grounds of form, not happenstance. On the face of it, in running up five consecutive victories, Big Buck's has posted some impressive handicap figures - particularly in the World Hurdle - but in none of those races has the time been up to much. The World Hurdle was especially slow for a Championship race at the Festival, and my guess is that the best staying hurdler did not win that day. Six runners in the Long Walk have posted better speed performances than the favourite and, with a strong pace, I fully expect him to be beaten. The Betting Challenge is laying Big Buck's for £60 at [1.58].

In the Ladbroke, Argento Luna is likely to go off at a big price. The Betting Challenge is having £10 on at Betfair SP in the Win and Place markets. The grey posted a fantastic looking time when winning the Mares' Final at Newbury in March - the best piece of individual form, at the weights, on offer here - and should excel in this big field stepping down in trip.

Whether or not she can transfer that form to an all-sex race we will see; but she certainly represents much better value than joint-favourites Harry Tricker and Pepe Simo. The former runs off eight pounds higher than when second last time at Cheltenham and, despite Khyber Kim seemingly advertising that form last weekend, will struggle to be competitive running off 134. And the latter has yet to really post any kind of form of the calibre required to win this.

Roll on Salvation Saturday.

This week's bets:
£60 LAY of Big Buck's at [1.58] in Long Walk Hurdle.
£10 BACK of Argneto Luna at Betfair SP in Ladbroke Win market.
£10 BACK of Argneto Luna at Betfair SP in Ladbroke Place market.

Tags: Argento Luna, Ascot, Big Buck's, Chris Hollins, Ladbroke Hurdle, Long Walk Hurdle, Ricky Whittle