General / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 09 November 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Over-rounds of 141% were commonplace in the early 20th century, so they've got better since right? Umm, no. Leighton Vaughan Williams explains

Siegfried Sassoon, the acclaimed English war poet, tells in his wonderful 'Memoirs of a Fox-Hunting Man' of his quest, in the person of George Sherston, to win as a young man the 14-runner Colonel's Cup 'HeavyWeight Race' at the Ringwell Point-to-Point Races.

The tale relates to the month of April in the year 1910. His mount, Cockbird, he tells us, was sent off at 5-1, with the favourite at 1-2 and the second favourite at 2-1. This already adds up to a bookmakers' over-round of almost 17%, without the rest of the field to consider. In other words, you would have to bet almost £117 at those prices to guarantee a return of £100, even assuming the other 11 horses making up the race had a combined chance of zero of winning the race. I won't spoil the story by telling you the result, but I can say that it was a great race. Albeit no thanks to the bookmakers!

But surely things have changed in the intervening 100 years of so? Well, let's fast forward to Wednesday, October 28, 2009, and the Epsom Owners & Trainers Awards Dinner Handicap, held at 9.20 pm on the All-Weather at Kempton. In this 13-runner 1mile 4 furlong handicap, the favourite, Giant Sequoia shortened from 4-6 at the track to be sent off at 4-9, while simultaneously drifting from evens ([2.0]) to almost 6 to 5 ([2.2]) on Betfair.

And was there some compensating effort on course to push out the prices of the remaining horses in the field? Not a bit of it! The race started with a staggering over-round of no less than 141 per cent! The Racing Post's Analysis column put it this way: "It was very surprising to see the hat-trick seeking Giant Sequoia sent off at such cramped odds on course ..."

But he won, of course? No! After failing to quicken, he was beaten home by second favourite, Silent Act, sent off at 5-1 and third-favourite, Little Sark, which shortened from 9-1 at the opening of the on-course market to 8-1 at the off.

So the real story was not in what happened to the price of the favourite but rather in what did not happen to the price of his closest rivals. So what's the explanation? Those seeking to defend the situation point to the 19-minute race delay caused by fog, and to the fact that some of the bookmakers and their clients had left early.

More importantly, what can we learn from this? Well, 5-1 is still a great price about the winner once he has passed the post, but as part of an over-round of 141% astute bettors would have been more alert than usual to the competitive alternatives to taking an on-course price.

The less astute would have been punished for assuming that the market was at least reasonably fair. 100 years on and the days of the massive over-round are still with us. For how much longer, I wonder?

Tags: Cockbird, Epsom Owners & Trainers Awards Dinner Handicap, Giant Sequoia, Over-Round