Is there an art to selecting the 'Long Shot'?

General / Wayne Bailey / 05 February 2008 / 6 Comments

Wayne Bailey maps his tactics to landing the big-priced selection

Allow me to be a tad annoying, and aftertime for a moment...

Earlier this month, I placed a nice little bet on a certain Shardakhan, in what looked like an open handicap. A friend, who likes to follow the money was aghast that I'd consider backing this [19.0] shot, with only one career win to date. The favourite he told me, was the true value bet at [4.2]. Unperturbed, I let my bet run. We watched the race, and I'm delighted to report that I was grinning from ear to ear when my nag sailed home by four lengths.

With the benefit of hindsight, [19.0] was a cracking price for Shardakhan, as it had plenty of conditions in its favour. I won't sit here smugly and pretend that I can pick such horses week after week - but a few touches like that per year can give an amazing sense of achievement.

So where do you start looking when you want to find that big-priced jumps winner? Well, the most important thing to is to only have a bet when conditions are in your favour - but through ignorance or laziness (or both), punters won't bother to doing homework and often rely on luck when backing long shots.

I'm not guaranteeing you plenty of winners, but you should at least give yourself a fighting chance when placing that bet on the big priced outsider (I define an outsider as a horse priced [9.0] or more).

Here are some hints that have served me well over the years...

Don't underestimate the course bias
Certain courses show a higher rate of outsider wins than others. There are many reasons for this, which I don't need to go into here. The important the important thing is to be aware of such biases. Bottom of the table for outsiders is Windsor (2.5%), whereas Ascot produces nearly twice as many outsider victories (4.6%). The 17 courses listed provide the highest number of outsider winners:

Aintree
Ascot
Ayr
Bangor
Carlisle
Cartmel
Exeter
Fakenham
Folkestone
Haydock
Kempton
Lingfield
Market Rasen
Newton Abbot
Plumpton
Towcester
Uttoxeter

Races
Unsurprisingly, handicaps provide the best opportunities for finding a value outsider. In reality, the weight a horse carries in a handicap is simply based on opinion, and has plenty of room for error. These markets provide the best chances for outsider victories.

Distance
Outsiders have a far greater win rate over long distances (2m4f or more), partly due to the fact that they present more opportunities for the fancied horses to fall. In fact, the longer distances show nearly twice as many outsider winners than at the minimum trip.

Sex of horse
It's official - it pays to be sexist! Male outsiders win significantly more races than their female counterparts, so it's always worth checking the sex of the horse before you have a bet.

Recent form
While the horses with the best form are unlikely to be outsiders, we must avoid backing complete no-hopers. A good rule of thumb is to note a horse that has come fifth or better in its last three outings.

Ground
A significantly higher amount of upsets occur on heavier ground, so it's best to only consider good to soft, soft or heavy going in the search for outsiders.

Class
Class 1 races are given plenty of media attention and it's rare that a big value bet slips through the net. Lower class races however, attract a lot of the no-hopers that we want to avoid. Class 2 or 3 races provide a happy medium, and as such, should be strongly considered.

In summary...

• Only back at the courses that provide the highest rates of outsider victories
• National Hunt handicap races only
• Distance is 2m4f or longer
• Male horses only
• Fifth or better in each of its last three outings
• Good to soft, soft or heavy ground only
• Class 2 or 3 races only

I'm not saying that you limit your scope to the above variables, but for the record, in the past eight years this approach has produced 33 winners (priced 9.0 or more) out of 427 bets (7.7%)... a significant increase on the overall outsider win rate of 3.6%. The profit to official SP using £10 stakes was £22.60. Unsurprisingly, this profit is far higher using betfair prices (over £1200). Of course, long losing spells are inevitable so patience is required. Needless to say, further selectivity is essential in order to bring the win rate up and this requires studying each horse individually.

The above guidelines will put the conditions in your favour...the rest, is up to you!

* Comments? Criticism? We welcome feedback of all kinds, so feel free to post your thoughts

Comments (6)

1. De Feypo | 07 February 2008

   hi there,
   Wayne could you show me the statistics or a vague idea of trainers who have good records at landing big gambles.
   thanks a lot
   Alan De Feypo

2. Wayne Bailey | 08 February 2008

   Hi Alan,

   Are you looking for a breakdown of trainers that regularly score with high priced horses?

   If so, I can post that up. Just let me know what prices to use (e.g. horses priced 6/1+)

3. De Feypo | 11 February 2008

   Well if possible just trainers who have records with horses whose odds shorten or good records with 'steamers'. If it isn't then no worries.
   Thanks though Wayne

4. Thomas Mack | 11 February 2008

   Hi Wayne,
   I notice of late there appears to be more and more hunter chases. I was wondering if you had a particular selction method or have noticed any trends for such races? Something that i like to follow is ex National horses because they are guarenteed stayers. Tomorrow at Folkestone Lou Du Moulin Mas never made the cut for the Grand National but still was aimed at the race.
   Thanks
   Thomas

5. Wayne Bailey | 11 February 2008

   I'm not sure if it's possible to use software back check steamers to be honest. Sorry I can't help you there.

6. Wayne Bailey | 12 February 2008

   Hi Thomas,

   Hunter chases are races I enjoy as they are often an incredible spectacle (check out the cross country chase at the Punchestown festival, which still has stone walls as part of the course). It's not the type of race I've managed to make a lot of money from however. When Cheltenham settles down, I'm going to spend some time on them and see if I can come up with something. Feel free to post any more pointers though.

   * Just noticed that the aforementioned Lou Du Moulin Mas won by 18 lengths!