Horseracing Weekend Betting Preview: Paintballing, punting and pilau rice

General / Graham Cunningham / 27 June 2008 / 1 Comments

Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has a busy Saturday planned and is aiming to hit the target on and off the track.

Comedy isn't the only arena in which timing is everything.

Blending parenthood with punting can be a tricky business at times and this Saturday poses particular problems for yours truly.

By 8am I will be donning Rambo fatigues in a Lancashire forest to help supervise a posse of nutty 13-year-olds intent on blasting each other to kingdom come with assorted paintball bullets and grenades.

Fortunately, all concerned have been warned that the old bloke needs to be home by 2pm to attack a series of excellent races before heading off for a restorative supply of curry and lager.
Plans don't always come off - as anyone who followed my Royal Ascot blog will testify - but this is where my punting paintball gun will be aimed on Saturday.

2.10 Newcastle

A tough opener, especially given the fact that Newcastle's sprint track can be subject to bias, but Utmost Respect looks set to go very well. Five furlongs at Beverley was no good to him but these conditions look much more suitable and his best form gives him a great win and place chance.

2.15 Chester
Every Second looks an ideal vehicle for a decent place bet at short odds with a smaller amount recommended in the win market. Granted, Ed McMahon's colt has found one too good three times now, but this step up to six will suit and stall 3 is no knock to his chance, either.

Recommending laying a horse is tricky when the price is still uncertain, but Missus Christie won a very ordinary race at Haydock and is worth opposing in the win market if she can be opposed at [8.0] or under.

2.45 Newcastle

More potential draw confusion here, and don't be surprised if they split, but I am keen to be against Rising Shadow and Prince Hamlet in the win and place markets.

Rising Shadow goes well here and landed a gamble at Ripon, but he needed every yard on very deep ground and is unlikely to get going early enough to beat this strong field. Prince Hamlet bolted up at Musselburgh, but this is much tougher over a shorter trip and his quirky nature raises doubts as to whether headgear will work again.

Nailing one down in the win market is tricky, but Valery Borzov is an intriguing back-to-lay option. Granted, he was worn down by Rising Shadow at Ripon, but having the visor back is a plus and his bright pace is bound to attract the inplay gang if he bowls along on the far side.

2.50 Chester

How interesting to see Sir Michael Stoute has booked Dean McKeown to ride the Queen's Criterion. McKeown has struggled for success round Chester in recent years, and his overall strike rate in recent months is just 6 per cent, while Criterion has plenty of ability but also goes in snatches.

The return of a visor might help, but this looks Criterion's bare minimum trip and he looks one to lay early in the hope that he will trade at much longer odds in the run.

3.20 Newcastle

Put up £200,000 and you have every right to expect a cracking handicap. And this looks a fiercely open Plate, with any number of possible winners even before you factor in the draw and possible traffic problems.

Bukit Tinggi looks bound to go well, but my plan involves a small win and place bet on Desert Sea and place lays of Greenwich Meantime and Pippa Greene.

Desert Sea showed a good turn of foot to record a career best at Sandown. Stall 15 isn't ideal but he still looks fairly treated under a penalty. Greenwich Meantime has been a cracking servant to Richard Fahey but hasn't done enough to suggest he is ready to land another big one recently, while Pippa Greene is less exposed but will struggle to get home over two miles if he takes his usual strong hold here.

3.30 Chester

The speed horses are usually the best starting point in Chester sprints and the trio in question here are Stolt, Not My Choice and Princess Ellis.

Princess Ellis has thrived recently, and this track is made for her trailblazing style, but the heavy recent rain and a sharp hike in the weights raise doubts as to whether she can get the lead from stall 8 and hold it when things get tough.

Not My Choice looks bound to show up well despite being 11lb higher than for his course win in May, but a back to lay of Stolt could be the way forward here. Noel Wilson's gelding is in the form of his life and handles softish ground well. Stall four is another plus and his apprentice rider Ashley Hamblett has done well from few opportunities on the Roodee.

3.40 Windsor

Another complex sprint. Beaver Patrol and Knot In Wood excelled in last week's Wokingham, while Hitchens is open to improvement after a break, but Orpsie Boy, Mac Gille Eoin and Ceremonial Jade look the trio to focus on.

Orpsie Boy and Mac Gille Eoin appeal as a pair to take on for small stakes both in the win and place markets. Granted, the latter impressed at Epsom. However, he got a perfect trip from an ideal draw there. This looks harder from a higher mark, while Orpsie Boy's reliability is countered by the fact that he returns from a break and that his handler has had just one winner since March.

Ceremonial Jade has huge natural ability. He doesn't always find masses off the bit, but he is 7lb lower than when bolting up on Lingfield's Polytrack and appeals as the type to shorten considerably once the inplay market takes effect.

3.45 Curragh

The exploits of New Approach and Lush Lashes show how dangerous it is to oppose Jim Bolger's stars once they get on a roll, but Finsceal Beo will need to be tough to shrug off a hard race at Royal Ascot and Promising Lead looks a very appealing alternative.

Sir Michael Stoute's filly finished ahead of Finsceal Beo at Longchamp on their sole previous encounter and looked better than ever when bolting up at York on her reappearance. She's lightly raced enough to suggest the best is yet to come and a win and place bet with the emphasis on the place half looks a very low risk investment.

Comments (1)

1. Bernard B | 28 June 2008

   Hope the donning of Rambo fatigues was more profitable:-)