Horseracing Betting: Graham Cunningham's weekend preview

General / Graham Cunningham / 18 July 2008 / 1 Comments

The eyes of the sporting world remain fixed on Birkdale, but the Flat season rolls on and Racing UK pundit Graham Cunningham is looking to ace the Betfair markets at Newbury and Newmarket.

Corrybrough the one if Candy's view is accurate

Trainerspeak is a fascinating language. Every goose is a swan to some handlers, while cautious coves like Henry Candy tend to be realism personified by comparison.

But the vastly experienced Candy showed his hand early with Corrybrough in April, when he said, "I slightly have the Prix de l'Abbaye in mind," for a colt who had won a handicap off a mark of just 90.

The fact that Candy mentioned the Abbaye at such an early stage indicated that Corrybrough was held in the highest regard and the powerful chestnut bids to make it four from four this season in Newbury's Hackwood Stakes at [2.20].

In theory, he faces no easy task given that Edge Closer has an official rating of 112 and Balthazaar's Gift is rated 110. Strike The Deal and Wee Dud also come into the equation, but Corrybrough is surely better than his current mark of 110 and his power at the finish over five furlongs suggests this step up to six will suit him ideally.

As ever, the bottom line relates to price. I wouldn't rush to get with him at [2.3] or shorter. But at [2.5] or bigger I suspect the backers would have much the best of the deal.

Penny's may not be a gift if Hannon history is any guide

The simple way of attacking Newbury's Weatherbys Super Sprint (3.25) involves starting with Richard Hannon's team and working backwards.

Evergreen Hannon has dominated this rich auction prize, and Penny's Gift boasts the best form of his six-strong posse this time, but whether she will prove the pick once the gates crash open is another matter.

Hannon sent Gilded out as a major fancy in 2006 but she failed to reach a place. Don't Tell Mum and Prince of Denmark endured similar fates in 2004 and 2003, and Penny's Gift has several obstacles to overcome in order to buck the trend.

First, she faces a huge field filled with speedy winners. And second, the way that Penny's Gift has thrived over six furlongs raises doubts as to whether she will be quite so good back at the minimum trip.

In short, I'm not convinced by Penny's Gift. Laying her in the win market is risky, but a place lay could prove worthwhile given the number of dangers who will be off for their lives with so much prize money on offer.

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Worship at the Temple for Newmarket success

The six furlong handicap which forms part of the undercard on day one of Newmarket's July Meeting always throws up plenty of winners.

This year's renewal, won by Spanish Bounty , is no exception, and Temple Of Thebes can give it an early boost when she lines up for Newmarket's Invesco Perpetual EBF Fillies' handicap at [3.35].

An open market looks assured, with Angus Newz and Secret Night just two who are bound to attract support, but Temple Of Thebes looked highly progressive when bolting up from subsequent winners on the Rowley Mile in May and caught the eye again last week.

Granted, Ed Dunlop's filly finished only eighth, but she travelled sweetly for a long way. Any rain will help her cause and, back against her own sex with Kerrin McEvoy aboard, she has the look of an interesting win and place candidate.

Racing sure to feel the pinch if punters tighten their belts

The income racing gains from betting revenue has never been greater according to figures published this week. But, just as regular society is bracing itself for tough economic times, racing should also take little for granted.

Consider the facts. Payments to racing from bookmakers and the Tote for 2007-08 totalled £116.5m, representing a year-on-year increase of over 17 per cent.

But consider also that no less than £15.8m of the bumper total was generated by the disastrous punting of a small group of astonishingly high rolling Ladbrokes clients.

Company spokesman David Williams is becoming an increasingly fertile source of amusing PR quotes and shot clear in the annual stating-the-bleeding-obvious stakes by saying, "these people are valuable and important to the company."

But look at the matter seriously for a moment. What if the same high rollers stop haemorrhaging money over the next year? Or what if the boot is on the other foot and they start serving it up to the Magic Sign?

Either way, it seems racing's fortunes are in a precarious position at the moment. And, with or without the high rollers, another record return in 2009 will be hard to achieve given the way the economic wind is blowing.

Comments (1)

1. Bernard | 20 July 2008

   Corrybrough: oh dear Graham :-( You always seem to believe the hype.....