Here's hoping Victoria Cup hopeful Al Khaleej can keep my hot streak going

General / Simon Rowlands / 09 May 2008 / 2 Comments

Simon Rowlands is coming off a great betting week so can he keep it up? Ascot, Lingfield and Haydock are covered in his weekly look at the betting talking points

I had the best punting day of the year last Friday thanks mostly to the action at Dundalk - as subscribers to Timeform Select should be able to appreciate - and Natagora came good while Muthabara came up short as predicted, so I am on the crest of a wave. For once.

The truth is that I might have been a bit lucky with Natagora in the 1000 Guineas. Lucky in that I sided with a filly partnered by someone who was able to give it a good ride, rather than one, like Nahoodh, who wasn't.

The die was cast at an early stage when Christophe Lemaire took Natagora straight to the front without having to go much of a pace, and Nahoodh was not the only one who should have made more of a race of it with the winner.

There were no such excuses for the defeat of Raven's Pass in the 2000 Guineas, for all that he ended up further back than ideal. Henrythenavigator was not all that far ahead of him at halfway and still managed to run down New Approach late on.

Sectionals might well have shown that the winner put in one hell of a performance, but, disappointingly, sectionals have been dropped at Newmarket at present. Raven's Pass has it in him to win a good race, but it may be at 6 or 7 furlongs.

The Derby and The Oaks used to be the automatic target for any three-year-old with aspirations to stay even an inch beyond a mile, but the Epsom classics look like being shunned by the connections of New Approach (who might well not have had the temperament for such an occasion) and Chinese White. The latter looked a genuine contender for the fillies' race when winning well at Gowran on Sunday.

The ante-post markets for the two races on Betfair are in a state of transition, with more significant trials to be run at Lingfield and Leopardstown this weekend and at York next week.

The one thing I would urge punters to consider is that their ante-post fancies have the requisite stamina (or not, if it is being laid). There is a common misconception that the Derby and Oaks trips take little getting at Epsom. The easy final mile at the track is, however, offset by an opening half mile that is the stiffest in British Flat racing.

Henrythenavigator has little chance of running in the Derby and no chance of winning it, good horse though he is, as he wouldn't get a mile-and-a-half in the proverbial horsebox. You don't have to be of a particularly sceptical disposition to think that suggestions to the contrary from connections have more to do with spin than with substance.

There is something for almost everyone on the racing front this weekend. In addition to the aforementioned classic trials at Lingfield (with Curtain Call, the only serious candidate for Epsom on show, only a possible at the time of writing), there are big handicaps on the Flat at Ascot and over hurdles at Haydock.

The Victoria Cup at Ascot at 2:20 on Saturday has attracted 26 runners over the straight seven furlongs. The market is likely to be headed by Al Khaleej and We'll Come, with the former looking to have particularly strong claims. There looks to be plenty of pace spread right across the course, and that puts me off King of Dixie, who won't be able to dominate in the way he has managed in two races on polytrack at Lingfield recently: he looks worth a place lay (four places on offer).

I am also going to risk a few quid on Zaahid for a win at a double-figure price: he has long looked worth another try at this trip, having been racing at a mile, and the likely strong pace should suit him if, as usual, he is held up.

The market for the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock at 2:00 on Saturday is dominated by Leg Spinner, but he seems very short for a horse having his first race in a competitive handicap under conditions that won't bring his stamina into play. A place lay is advised.

A better proposition from Ireland looks to be Raise Your Heart, who is all speed and who ran well at Punchestown recently. I'll be backing him win and place.

Comments (2)

1. Bish Fish | 15 May 2008

   Congratulations on Zaahid. Looks like you weren't alone in fancying him as he was absolutely smashed off the boards by the Hills disciples.

   I keep furlong by furlong sectionals and this is the only time where every single furlong has been run in the optimum time (correct to one nanosecond) by the winner. Does that agree with your findings? Hills must have a stopwatch for a brain.

2. Simon Rowlands | 17 May 2008

   Thanks for that Bish Fish.

   I'd love to know how you get furlong-by-furlong sectionals at Ascot, correct to the nearest nanosecond, as I could not possibly achieve that!

   I used to take sectionals at Ascot based on the paths crossing the course on the round and straight tracks, but have not done so since they altered the track (and made the paths much less easy to spot). Instead, I concentrate on the electronic sectionals provided by TurfTrax at four of the all-weather courses.

   I would agree, however, that the ride on Zaahid looked to be judged to perfection. I am not quite ready to genuflect at the altar of Richard Hills (see website "Richard Hills Is God", run by some crank), but have a lot more time for him than many seem to have.

   Simon Rowlands