General / Jack Houghton / 07 November 2009 / Leave a comment

This week, punting-deity-extrordinaire Jack Houghton's going to San Anita - not with a flower in his hair but instead baring a bumper batch of bets...

"Whereas the market seems to be focusing on Viscount Nelson and Pounced in the Juvenile Turf, Buzzword has form as good as those two, and should be supported."

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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The challenge set before me by those dreadful bores at Betfair HQ was thus: betting for a year, on a variety of events, they said, you will lose money. Specialisation, they said, was the only way to ensure long-term profitability. Break that rule, they said, and you would lose. Prove us wrong, they said.

Well, three months in and their morale is shot. Because, showing a massive profit, I - punting-deity-extraordinaire - have already proved them wrong. I pity the fools. When will they learn?

Some would show great magnanimity in this, a moment of triumph. But in my book, magnanimity is for losers: it's time to slam the ball down in the end-zone and do a little dance for the expectant crowd. So folks, here it is... Having already debunked and dispelled one tenet of punting wisdom, it's time to destroy another.

Smug and knowing professional types reckon the Breeders' Cup is a punting death-zone. Overestimating the worth of European form, posted much earlier in a long season; underestimating the worth of US form, too foreign to accurately understand. Yes, investing Stateside, they reckon, is akin to online bingo: you might as well staple bank notes together as glorified garlands, ceremoniously placing them around the necks of passing strangers.

Piff and piddle. What other night of the year can you encamp on the couch and mix up your usual Strictly and X Factor punting-fest with top-class racing? This ain't the time to get all coy and abstemious. This is the time to get drunk and get stuck into a channel-hopping frenzy of punting hedonism. Not that I advise alcohol to be consumed within 24 hours of any betting activity. (That one's for you Ed.)

So it's off to Santa Anita we ago-go. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Buzzword looks the value call. On the best conversion figures I can work out, the European challenge is nearly half-a-stone ahead of the home defence. But whereas the market seems to be focusing on Viscount Nelson and Pounced as the most likely winners; Buzzword has form as good as - if not slightly better - than those two, and should be supported.

So I'm backing Buzzword for £3 in the US Pools through Betfair's new link-up. He has the profile of a horse the Yanks typically send off at a monstrously large price, and we should get higher odds than the Exchange's currently available [12.5]. In the same race, I'm laying Interactif in the Place market for £3 at Betfair SP.

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the market is overplaying the chances of Baffert-gun Lookin At Lucky. Although able, it is the Dutrow-trained D'Funnybone who has the best form of the US-challengers. I'm having £4 on at [6.0]. Of the Europeans, Beethoven looks sure to remain most composed (ho ho), play the right tune (you crease me up), and my ears are deaf to anyone who says otherwise (stop it, you're killing me). I'm backing him for £2 at [13.0] in the Win market and £2 at [3.5] in the Place market.

Conduit is the best horse on ratings in the Turf but, at his peak of a couple of years' ago, Red Rocks was capable of similar and, in what might be a slow run race, I think he could shock these. I'm having £2 to Win and Show in the US Pools.

That leaves us with the Classic. Rip Van Winkle's monstrous clock showing behind Sea The Stars looks incongruous compared to his other performances. Things fell perfectly for him that day and I doubt he will ever repeat the performance. So at [3.25], in a race of this quality, on a new surface, in another country - he has to be opposed. Summer Bird has as good a form as any of the remainder, and is more than twice the price of the more-hyped Zenyatta, so I'm having £3 on at [11.0] in the Win market, and at [3.0] in the Place market.

I'm off to work out my latest end-zone touchdown dance.

This week's bets:

£3 BACK of Buzzword at US Pools' SP in BC Juvenile Turf Win market.
£3 LAY of Interactif at Betfair SP in BC Juvenile Turf Place market.
£4 BACK of D'Funnybone at [6.0] in BC Juvenile Win market.
£2 BACK of Beethoven at [13.0] in BC Juvenile Win market.
£2 BACK of Beethoven at [3.5] in BC Juvenile Place market.
£2 BACK of Red Rocks at US Pools' SP in BC Turf Win market.
£2 BACK of Red Rocks at US Pools' SP in BC Turf Show market.
£3 BACK of Summer Bird at [11.0] in BC Classic Win market.
£3 BACK of Summer Bird at [3.0] in BC Classic Place market.

Tags: Breeders Cup betting odds, Breeders Cup betting tips, Buzzord, horseracing, Jack Houghton's Weekly Betting Challenge, Rip van winkle, The Breeders Cup, The Breeders Cup classic