General / Paul Jacobs / 09 February 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Saturday's big race is a reliable indicator of which horses might be in the mix at Cheltenham but it is also a coveted event in its own right. Paul Jacobs takes a close look at the field.

It was traditionally the biggest handicap hurdle during the National Hunt season, but it seems that the totesport Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday has become more of a stepping stone race to either the Cheltenham Festival or other spring targets rather than an outstanding event in its own right.

Blue Bajan [55.0] tops the weights this year off mark of 155, but thereafter the next highest rated horses are the Pipe pair Mutual Friend (85) and Mamlook (100.00) of 143 so strength in depth is hardly the story this time around.

So this year's race looks more of a breeding ground for the unexposed progressive novices which the handicapper has quite understandably been unable to get a hang on.

Spirit River (7.4) definitely comes into that category and has long been touted for this event by the yard. He certainly has the right make-up for the race being lightly raced, massively progressive and well regarded at home. In addition, his course form reads well and it's just a matter of whether you believe he can defy a mark13lbs higher than for his success at Cheltenham over Olympian in December. I thought that penalty was just about spot on. He has a nice racing weight here and has to be on my short list with ground conditions also not a problem.

Harry Tricker [8.8] arguably comes into the race with the best form line in the whole entry having run Khyber Kim to a couple of lengths in the Greatwood Hurdle. His problem is that the handicapper has pushed him up 12 pounds and although his yard know how to win this race he is passed over.

Manyriverstocross [14.0] and Any Given Day [28.0] look big dangers to one and all approaching three out in the Challow, but that event was too much of a test of stamina for both.

The former will be dismissed by many as he finished 17 lengths behind his rival that day, but that was because he weakened very quickly and the bare two miles here run at a hectic race will surely suit him better. With the yard firing on all cylinders he is interesting off a mark of 135 and preferred to his fellow novice.

Numide [32.0] has been a real conundrum for connections after three fruitless runs over hurdles. He shaped with bit more promise returned to hurdles at Kempton last time out and should the ground come up bottomless off 132, only 8lbs higher than his Greatwood win, he could go well at a price and has been significantly backed in the past few days.

He only has 5lbs pull for being beaten 24 lengths by Ronaldo Des Mottes at the Sunbury track and the Pipe horse looks just the type to excel in this event although an 11lbs penalty for winning a much lesser race does seem harsh.

On good ground Fairyland (17.5) would have solid claims, but the forecast is against him, while Get Me Out Of Here (12.5) faces a much sterner test than on his last few starts so Spirit River gets a confident vote with Numide (bottomless going) and Manyriverstocross the supporting team.

Tags: Antepost betting, Horseracing betting odds, horseracing betting tips, Newbury races, Paul Jacobs, Spirit River