In-running / Neil Munro / 26 August 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Neil Munro overcomes his disappointment at missing a nice in-running profit on Acrostic to bring you another bulletin from the world of in-play betting

"Acrostic has trades on his in-running CV of [1.06], [1.11] (twice), [1.14], [1.44], [1.51], [1.55], [2.06] and [2.20]. Although he looks capable of winning off a mark in the 100s I would far rather lay him in-running every time."

Disappointment is one of the emotions that goes hand in hand with any form of punting, and in-running isn't exempt from that. I experienced a large dose of disappointment when trying to trade on Acrostic up at York recently. In short, I expected Luca Cumani's 5yo to trade shorter than his SP in the run and put up various offers using the keep bets function, with my first one in at [2.08]. After the race I looked at the graph and noted that his lowest trade was [2.06]. Great, I thought, but what I hadn't realised was that there had been a non-runner and my initial offer was changed to odds-on. Thus, I missed out on one of my main trades of the week through no fault of my own.
Disappointment would be putting it mildly.

Acrostic - Cumani's gelding is still relatively lightly-raced, having had only 15 career starts, but a return of two career wins suggests he doesn't do his talent justice. He is a horse that enjoys being held-up and delivered late which brings about its own problems, especially as he competes in some of the best mile handicaps throughout the season, which tend to be big fields. He travels in an eye-catching manner out the back, which means that his price contracts more than it should for his win ratio. But this does allow us to try and take him on during the race. He has trades on his in-running CV of [1.06], [1.11] (twice), [1.14], [1.44], [1.51], [1.55], [2.06] and [2.20]. Although he looks capable of winning off a mark in the 100s I would far rather lay him in-running every time.

La Fortunata - Speedy front-runners are the bread and butter of in-running traders, although you still have to do the homework to make sure there isn't lots of other pace in a race, or that the horse that you are interested in is well drawn. So as long as you are not too greedy, you can normally trade a position on horses such as La Fortunata. Last time out she showed real pace over the minimum trip at York, blasting away some other pace horses before just being caught close home by Monsieur Joe. She traded at [1.05] in the run, which just goes to show how close she came to holding on. This is her first really low trade on turf but she has been running well and a back-to-lay strategy is definitely the way to go. Interestingly, she has tried the five furlongs at Kempton three times, with trades of [1.01], [1.03] and [1.68], but she has still yet to win.

Dubawi Gulf - I spoke about a few unexposed horses last week, but felt it was worth adding another to the list. Ed Dunlop's filly has had three starts so far and traded short in the run on all three runs. She made her debut in July at Doncaster over seven furlongs, where she travelled well, but could not find anything extra in the last furlong. This could have been put down to greenness but she was one-paced again at the finish when next seen out over the same trip at Goodwood. With these two runs under Dubawi Gulf's belt, she went off a short price favourite for what looked an easy opportunity in a maiden at Folkestone. But once again she seemed one-paced and I think she is one to take on in the run until she is stepped up in trip.

Diman Waters - There is a chance that I am being harsh with Eric Alston's three-year-old but I think that he doesn't put it all in at the business end of the race. Although he is a sprinter with talent he has only won the one race (he has past the post first one other time but was disqualified for drifting into another horse) in twelve starts. He has a further four seconds to his name and looks more likely to finish in that position than winning a race at the moment. Last time out at Sandown he had a lot in his favour but again found a couple too good. Admittedly the stiff finish at Sandown could have played it's part, as I think he needs a flat five, but for me he is one to beware of at the business end of a race.

Tags: Acrostic, Diman Waters, Dubawi Gulf, La Fortunata, York