In-running / Neil Munro / 16 September 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Neil Munro brings a quartet of horses that rate a pre-race bet and an in-running lay

"Opera Gal has four trades at [2.02] or under and looks a natural for back-to-lay tactics at the moment, although I would want my end position to be winning more on the field."

People are always asking me if there is a quick win with in-running trading, a short-cut to success. I don't believe there is, in any area of punting, but I do believe there are various ways that you can lean the percentages in your direction. For punters looking to develop their trading skills I would look closely at Mark Johnston horses. You know that the yard likes to race their horses prominently and they find more on the front end than you expect at times. So a simple back-to-lay policy could well see some results, with a small bit of research. So let us start with a Mark Johnston horse.

Below Zero - Mark Johnston's three-year-old has made the running nine times from 12 career starts which has led to him trading half his Betfair starting price or shorter in the run during all ten defeats. He has won twice, and interestingly, according to the Timeform going descriptions, both have come on firm ground. Of those in-running trades Below Zero has traded at [3.5] or shorter on five occasions including two odds-on turnovers. Last time out at Chester over seven furlongs, he was drawn eight and Adrian Nicholls had to make plenty of use of him to get to the front, but even then he traded as low as [1.42] before finishing fourth. He is entered for the Gold/Silver/Bronze Gold Cup up at Ayr but I am not sure he will get rattling fast ground. Back-to-lay looks the play for him.

Sweet Lightning - The five-year-old gelding generally travels supremely well, catching the eye, and causing his price to contract in the run. Sweet Lightning is relatively lightly campaigned for a 5yo, but has picked up four wins in 22 runs. In those 18 defeats he has traded at [3.1] or shorter 11 times, including five odds-on trades. His premium conditions are 1m2f to 1m4f on good to soft and good ground where he has won three times in nine attempts. Interestingly, however, he is entered for the Cambridgeshire (Newmarket, October 2 - [26.0] to back, [34.0] to lay) where he would be attempting 1m1f for the first time. Any give in the ground would make him an interesting back-to-lay proposition. Those would be my tactics under his premium conditions but if the ground was good to firm I would just try to lay him in the run.

Opera Gal - Andrew Balding's 3yo filly has had just nine starts but has enjoyed running under prominent tactics, causing her in-running price to contract relatively quickly. She has won just the once, over 1m3f at Warwick on good to firm ground but has finished second or third a further five times. I feel she should have picked up a couple more races than she has although last time out she came up against a decent Godolpin animal in the form of Willing Foe. Opera Gal has four trades at [2.02] or under and looks a natural for back-to-lay tactics at the moment, although I would want my end position to be winning more on the field.

Valiant Knight - The 3yo colt traded odds-on in the run for the third time in his last five starts, hitting marks of [1.19], [1.41] and [1.38]. Richard Hannon's son of Night Shift has struggled since entering Handicap company, but not from the point of view of his mark. He has gone close enough off a mark of 80 to prove that he can cope, I think it is more to do with the way he finishes off his races. He travels well but struggles to find anything when pushed. I will be looking to take him on in the run.

Tags: Below Zero, Cambridgeshire Handicap, Mark Johnston, Opera Gal, Sweet Lightning, Valiant Knight