Betting Strategy / Neil Munro / 22 July 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Neil Munro contrasts the recent fortunes of two leading trainers to explain why the form of the men behind the runners and riders must be considered by in-running punters.

"One of the oldest statements known to punters rings true even for in-running players - follow a trainer in form."

As discussed over the past few months there are various angles that we, as in-running players, can utilise. Many of these have a link to regular punting such as following horses that are in form, being wary of horses that seem quirky and paying close attention to horse's premium conditions. To those factors we can add trainers in form.

Let's look at two of the Knights of the training profession, Sir Mark Prescott and Sir Michael Stoute. Sir Mark has been in cracking form during July, sending out 12 winners from 34 runners since the beginning of the month up until Wednesday night. In the same period, Sir Michael has had just four winners from fifty-one runners. Two top trainers who are in very different form.

In addition to the winners, Sir Mark Prescott has recorded five seconds and five thirds in those thirty four runners. Of those 22 runners that were defeated, 13 traded at [3.0] or lower in the run, including seven that traded odds-on, and one of those was at the holy-grail price of [1.01].

As stated above, Sir Michael has sent out just five winners with an additional 10 seconds and eight thirds in those 51 runners. Of those forty-six defeated runners, 20 traded at [3.0] or lower including thirteen odds-on trades in-running. And guess what, one of those was at the basement trade of [1.01].

So let us look at this statistically.

Sir Mark Prescott (July 1st - 21st)

Wins to Runs Ratio: 35%
Tradeable Ratio of Losers: 59%
Odds-On Ratio of Losers: 33%

Sir Michael Stoute (July 1st - 21st)

Win Ratio: 7%
Tradeable Ratio of Losers: 43%
Odds-On Ratio of Losers: 28%

It's interesting that both trainers' ratio of odds-on losers is quite similar despite the distinct difference in their win ratios. The suggestion is that Sir Michael Stoute's horses are just not finishing off their races at the real business end.

From the point of view of making money, you can easily see that you would make money backing all of the runners of an in form trainer and then laying out at odds-on to create a green book, as this would have meant that you would have had varying degrees of success on 19 of Sir Mark's 34 runners with a 56% strike rate. For Sir Michael Stoute the strike rate would have been 35% so less likely to succeed which is no surprise for a trainer out of form.

Another play, based on the fact that both trainers have a similar rate of odds on losers in the period, would be to simply lay all runners for an out of form trainer in the run at odds-on because you are likely to get more horses defeated than those that go onto win.

I believe that you can take various in-running plays from these stats but it does go to show that one of the oldest statements known to punters rings true even for us in-running players - follow a trainer in form.

As always I like to give a couple of horses to follow:-

Bold Bidder - Kevin Ryan's two year old filly showed blistering speed from the 19 box in the Newbury Super Sprint, and that was in a race full of speedy types. She was running off a very light weight which obviously helped so next time out I will be looking to back pre-race and lay in-running at low odds in case she struggles off a higher weight.

Australia Day - A natural front-runner on the flat has converted these tactics to his hurdling career. He has taken a while to get his jumping thoroughly ironed out but, after thrashing a decent field at Market Rasen on Saturday, he looks as though that has happened. The handicapper will be hammering him for this success so it makes sense to back him pre-race and then lay out in-running, just in case the weight stops him from following up.

Tags: horseracing betting, In-running week, Neil Munro