Betting Strategy / Neil Munro / 30 September 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

UK racing expert Neil Munro turns his attention to the winter game

"Thai Vango has traded at odds of [2.0] or under five times in seven defeats over the bigger fences. This happens when other horses take advantage of his laziness out front."

With the Flat season nearing the end now is a good time to get ahead of your punting competitors and that is why I paid close attention to the National Hunt meeting at Market Rasen last weekend. There was just a hint of some better performers turning out at this meeting, and I am sure that the quality will step up over the next few weeks.

Qulinton - David Pipe's six-year-old already has three National Hunt career wins, twice over hurdles and once over the bigger fences. Those victories have all come over trips between two miles and two miles five furlongs. When Qulinton has been tried over further he has just struggled to get home so I will be concentrating on a back-to-lay over his ideal range of trips. He suits this betting approach as connections allow him to travel prominently in almost all starts. Qulinton doesn't need to dictate but he does enjoy being around the early pace and then taking on the running as we get into the business end of a race.

Thai Vango - One of the golden rules of National Hunt punting has been to look closely at Nigel Twiston-Davies runners early in the season. The Cheltenham-based trainer has started this campaign in good form including Thai Vango recently in a race the horse won last year. For a 9yo he is very lightly raced and, while he has obviously had his problems, the one thing I have noticed in the run is that he does tend to idle in front. This leads to him trading bigger in-running, so he is well worth splitting your stakes between pre-race and in the run, but also you have to put up lay offers as well as he has traded at odds of [2.0] or under five times in seven defeats over the bigger fences. This happens when other horses take advantage of his laziness out front.

Mickmacmagoole - Evan Williams' 8yo appears to be a fairly difficult ride, as he has to be delivered as late as possible to hit the winning line first. And that quirk makes him an interesting trading proposition. He has picked up six career wins over hurdles, in both handicap company and sellers, but you can define his ideal conditions. These appear to be two miles to two miles three furlongs on any ground, as he has won four times, and has six placed efforts, from 18 runs under these parameters. His seasonal reappearance run suggested that he can win off his current mark of 116 so I will be looking to back him in the run at a few points bigger than his starting price as he does trade bigger with the hold-up tactics that connections employ..

Dontpaytheferryman - Brian Ellison's charge had his seasonal reappearance at the weekend on ground that was a little too quick for the five year old's liking. He still showed that in his ideal conditions you should be looking to back pre-race and lay out your stake in the running. Those ideal conditions are: two miles to two miles three furlong on soft or heavy going where he has won four times in nine runs. In those five defeats he has traded considerably shorter in the run so he really does become a safe play under those conditions.

Cambridgeshire Extra

Just a quick word about this weekend domestic big race. Look out for Michael Dod's charge Sweet Lightning. I have mentioned him recently as a really smooth traveller and this leads to him trading shorter in the run quite quickly. Richard Hughes is provisionally booked which will help with his price contracting.

Tags: Dontpaytheferryman, Mickmacmagoole, Qulinton, Sweet Lightning, Thai Vango