Simon Rowlands: Leading First-Season Sire September Update

Bloggers / Simon Rowlands / 14 September 2011 / 2 Comments

Middle Park winner Dark Angel currently leads the way

"Dark Angel leads the way on 30 wins..."

Simon Rowlands brings you the latest update on the race to be leading first-season sire...

It has been said that Autumn rides in on the tail of the last horse in the St Leger, and this year the weather has duly obliged. Thoughts begin to turn to end-of-year titles, some of which seem foregone conclusions, others of which are still very much up for grabs.

One title that falls into the latter category is that of Leading First-Season Sire. With little more than three months to go, three 'freshman' sires are well clear but with hardly anything between them.

Dark Angel leads the way on 30 wins, but Dutch Art and Red Clubs are snapping at his heels with 28. It is 10 back to Amadeus Wolf on 18.

This is of more than academic interest, as Betfair has been running a market on the outcome, to be found on the Breeding & Bloodstock tab under Horseracing (click HERE to go directly to the market). Dark Angel can currently be backed at [2.0], while Dutch Art and Red Clubs can be backed at [2.5] and [3.35] respectively.

You don't have to be a maths genius to realise that collectively those odds are a bit tight. The beauty of Betfair, of course, is that if you don't like the odds on offer you can offer better ones yourself. I would suggest that odds of nearer [2.4], [2.7] and [4.3] would be fair.

Dutch Art, in particular, is interesting, as the quality of his offspring - as measured by Timeform median ratings - is some way in advance of the other two, who have had greater quantity. There should be some winners waiting to happen among his maiden and unraced two-year-olds.

How the first-season sires are faring should also be seen as relevant to anyone betting on two-year-old racing at all, for reasons explained in an earlier blog.

For information, the median ratings of the offspring of the leading first-season sires (a stronger-than-average bunch) at the end of September 12 were as follows:

Amadeus Wolf (18 wins) 68 median Timeform rating
Cockney Rebel (10 wins) 80
Dark Angel (30 wins) 68.5
Dutch Art (28 wins) 78
Dylan Thomas (8 wins) 80
Excellent Art (16 wins) 76
Lawman (9 wins) 67
Moss Vale (10 wins) 53
Red Clubs (28 wins) 69
Sir Percy (8 wins) 70
Strategic Prince (10 wins) 60
Teofilo (10 wins) 71

And all this should be very much of interest to our bloodstock tipsters - competing for £100 to charity and bragging rights - featured in those earlier blogs.

James Willoughby and Timeform's John Ingles are +22, having both gone for Dark Angel and against Dylan Thomas, but Juddmonte's Kevin Sommerville is not far behind on +18 and will be hoping for Dutch Art to come good and Teofilo to turn bad!

Comments (2)

1. John Ingles | 15 September 2011

   Yes, it's going to be interesting over the remaining months.

   As well as having a higher median than his two main rivals, Dutch Art’s 57% winners to runners is a lot better than Dark Angel and Red Clubs, so if I had to pick one now instead, he’d be my choice to come out on top.

   I’m a bit disappointed by Teofilo; even if he wasn't going to compete with the 'speedier' sires by numbers of wins, I would have expected him to have returned a better median by this stage.

2. Simon Rowlands | 09 January 2012

   A slightly belated final round-up of the above first-season sires competition.

   In the end, the leading sires, by the terms set by Betfair in its market, were:

   Dark Angel 38
   Dutch Art 37
   Red Clubs 36

   Providing a stirring finish from what seemed an above-average crop of freshmen.

   This also resulted in a dead-heat in the competition itself between James Willoughby of RUK and John Ingles of Timeform. As a result, £100 has been donated to Prostate Cancer Charity, Betfair's chosen charity for 2011.

   Thanks to everyone who took part and who commented.

   2012 promises to be another exciting season, with the likes of Duke of Marmalade, Mount Nelson, New Approach, Raven's Pass and Sakhee's Secret among the newcomers to the sires' ranks looking to make their mark.

   Simon