Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Dodgy form of the leading contenders makes the New Zealand team of Mark Brown and David Smail a value bet.

Recent World Cup results suggest this is a wide open event among the 20-odd countries with a realistic chance, so New Zealand look well worth a crack to pull off a big shock and win their first title.

None of the last three World Cup winners were particularly obvious. Wales were roughly [40.0] in 2005, Germany slightly higher in 2006 and even Scotland last year were over [30.0]. And compared to some of the countries trading around that price this time, New Zealand look far better value at 110.0.

The key to this pairs event is that teams cannot afford to carry one weak player. This automatically rules out a lot of countries - see for example Italy, who are just [50.0]. They are represented by the Molinari brothers, one who is bang in form but the other hopelessly out of his depth to date on the main tours. Equally, the favourites can suffer even if one of the pair produces their world-class best, only to be dragged down by a struggling partner. So while favourites Sweden can boast player of the year Robert Karlsson, Henrik Stenson's dodgy recent form must be a concern.

That can work to the advantage of a pair that, if not world-beaters, are capable of putting four, consistent rounds of golf together. Besides those moderate recent winners, consider the French pairing of Jacquelin and Havret that were only beaten a shot last year. In my view, the New Zealand pairing of Mark Brown and David Smail rates their equal, especially as the event is held in China.

Brown was advised in this column a fortnight ago, and while he didn't deliver I remain confident that he will be a factor during the Asian series of co-sanctioned Euro Tour events. All of his best form has come in Asia, and it was encouraging that he finished 66/69 over the weekend in Hong Kong to suggest an imminent return to form. Remember, its only nine months since Brown won consecutively in India, and was a seemingly permanent feature on Euro Tour leaderboards.

As for Smail, he's another consistent performer in Asia, usually on the Japanese Tour. In 13 events since the start of June on that tour, Smail has made the top-15 nine times, and he's often challenged strongly in the big Australasian events over the years. Smail also has some serious form in the World Cup, putting up a starring performance alongside Michael Campbell when that pair finished runners-up seven years ago in Japan.