WGC-Accenture Matchplay Day Two Tips: Erratic Mickelson looks vulnerable against in-form Johnson

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty made an 11 point profit on his day one head-to-head betting so who are his selections for today?

Didn't we all know he'd do something like that? Any concerns that Tiger Woods would be 'rusty' after his eight-month layoff were immediately put to bed by a superb birdie-eagle start to set up an easy first round triumph over Brendan Jones at the World Matchplay. That must have pleased Tiger's army of backers who steamed into his outright price, which shortened a full point before he'd even hit a shot and went as low as [4.0] at one stage in-running.

However, the story isn't quite that simple. There was enough to suggest Woods won't have its own way this week. His form was fair, but nothing out of the ordinary, after that blistering start and an overwhelmed Jones never offered any sort of resistance. More worryingly for outright backers, the commentary team noticed a distinct limp towards the end of his round. So perhaps this will yet be reminiscent of Ernie Els' muted comeback from a similar injury four years ago; the Big Easy admitted later he was tiring towards the end of rounds for months.

So with that in mind, I'm still not going anywhere near odds of [4.5] to win the event, especially as all the big guns in his half of the draw also progressed. Tim Clark should present a much tougher opponent than Jones, and after that it looks like being tough all the way to the final. That top half of the draw contains serious candidates in the form of Mickelson, Ogilvy, Villegas, Els, McIlroy, Donald and Westwood; all of whom are trading under [40.0]. And that's before mentioning several other world-class players in the section. With [1.39] currently available on Woods to beat Tim Clark, I feel confident that a running match-by-match accumulator on Woods would pay more than the [4.5] available in the outright market.

Three winners out of five on day one yielded an 11 point profit, which leaves plenty to play with on the second round matches. Here are my three selections for Thursday.

Start time: 16.30
5pts - Zach Johnson to beat Phil Mickelson @ 2.24

I've already flagged up former Masters champion Johnson in my 'Find Me a 100 Winner' http://betting.betfair.com/golf/players-under-the-microscope/post-9-240209.html preview, and he produced the best golf of anyone on the first day. This new course at Dove Mountain is not easy by any means, so Zach's -7 to beat Graeme McDowell 3 and 1 was mightily impressive. In contrast, we saw all the worst of Mickelson in his narrow victory over an out of form Cabrera. Cruising to a comfortable win, Lefty very nearly crumbled under a late charge from the Argentinian. Mickelson has never reached the last-4 of this event and I don't see that changing.

Start time: 17.46
7pts - Stephen Ames to beat Peter Hanson @ [1.8]

Again, there's no question which of this pair played the better golf today. Ames scored -3 to beat Alvaro Quiros, and with the draw opening up could well go on a good run. 55.0 looks an attractive trade about the Canadian to win the event, never mind this second round match. Hanson upset the odds in an all-Swedish affair, but in truth didn't have to do much to beat a badly out of sorts Robert Karlsson, who maintained his poor record in the event. Hanson was just level par for his 3 & 2 victory.

Start time:17.58
4pts Matthew Goggin to beat Paul Casey @ [2.3]

Though Casey warrants respect as a former winner of the other World Matchplay championship, (at Wentworth), I can't help but feel the market is rather over-estimating his chances. His outright odds have shortened to 20.0 on the basis of a one hole victory over Aaron Baddeley, yet looking at the scoring this looks like it was one of the poorest standard matches on day one. Despite getting off to a Tiger-like birdie-eagle start, Paul only finished level par for the round. In contrast, Goggin was -3 for his victory over Kenny Perry, and having done the business for us in that match, I'm sticking with the Aussie.