Betfair Official Blog

WGC Match Play odds: Cink and Leonard the value bets at the QF stage

Click here to view market

Paul Krishnamurty previews all four quarter-finals at the WGC Match Play

They're down to the last eight in Tucson, with a gruelling weekend ahead. Saturday sees the quarter-finals in the morning, followed immediately by the semis and then a 36-hole final on Sunday. Everything would seem to suggest that this is the stage where fitness, and perhaps youth, should come to the fore.

Anyone following my pre-tournament advice to lay Tiger Woods on the outright market with a view to backing him at bigger odds in-running will be sitting pretty now with plenty of profitable options. http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/wgc-world-match-play-if-youre-ever-going-to-oppose-1-190208.html For the second time in three matches, Woods drifted to my target price of 2.5 in another classic against Aaron Baddeley last night. Again, it confirmed he is potentially vulnerable in this format, as well as proving what a tough nut he is to crack even when all seems lost.

It doesn't look like getting any easier for Tiger, with a quarter-final against rising PGA Tour star KJ Choi. And should Henrik Stenson land the odds against Woody Austin for his 10th consecutive unbeaten match at Dove Mountain, the Swede will represent the toughest of semi-final opponents.

Needless to say, Woods dominates the market. Despite the tough draw, he takes just under 50% out of the book alone. This leads me to the conclusion that there could be some mileage in trading players in other sections of the draw on the outright market. In the opposite half to Tiger, for instance, Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink are currently trading at attractive odds around [14.5] largely on the assumption that to win the event they'd have to defy big odds against Woods. Of course if Choi or Stenson were to knock the favourite out in the meantime, whoever emerges from the bottom half will see their odds plunge.

JUSTIN LEONARD V VIJAY SINGH

Leonard in particular looks a good bet both in his quarter-final match against Vijay Singh and for the tournament. If age is going to be a factor over the weekend, then Vijay probably doesn't need reminding that he turned 45 yesterday. Not only does he have this disadvantage to overcome, but having played 25 holes today he would be looking at playing 130+ over the week if still around on Sunday.

At the danger of sounding repetitive, I must re-iterate that he is simply not playing well enough to win this title. The last two rounds have been extremely frustrating for my 'oppose Vijay' strategy, as both Niclas Fasth and Rod Pampling have blown golden opportunities to claim his scalp with poor finishes. Nevertheless, I am persevering.

As far as form on the golf course this week is concerned, Leonard has been streets ahead. An outstanding bogey-free -8 today means the former Open champion stands on -19 through 50 completed holes this week. That's a full 10 shots superior to Vijay, who has played a dozen holes more.

STEWART CINK V ANGEL CABRERA

Cink is rated clear outsider against US Open champ Angel Cabrera, which seems harsh. In this levelling format, which has seen the outsider win 11 of the last 23 ties, a game like this is basically 50/50. And though the difference is not as marked as with Leonard/Singh, once again the market does not reflect this week's scoring. Both of these players have played 49 holes, with Cink scoring five shots fewer. Furthermore, over a long gruelling weekend I would rather side with 34 year-old Cink over the chunky Argentinian.

HENRIK STENSON V WOODY AUSTIN

The other player really up against it on age grounds is rank outsider Woody Austin. Full credit to Woody, who has played some marvellous golf so far this week, even if yesterday's victory over Boo Weekley was a largely uninspiring affair. If he could repeat the level shown against Adam Scott, he could lower Stenson's colours but that's a very big if for a limited PGA Tour player not renowned for his consistency. Given Stenson's unbeaten record on this course, and his sizeable advantage both in age and length off the tee, [1.7] looks a pretty solid bet for favourite backers.

TIGER WOODS V KJ CHOI

Finally to the Woods match, which though interesting from a golfing perspective, doesn't inspire me to have a bet. There's no bigger fan of KJ Choi than me, but I'm a little concerned that he's been hanging on at the end of both his last two matches. Choi hasn't looked likely to produce the sort of birdie barrage that Baddeley did to challenge Woods today, and so is probably the right price at around [4.]0 now. As there's no way I'd consider a bet on Tiger at skinny odds of [1.33], this looks one to sit out.

ADVISED BETS

OUTRIGHT WINNER

5pts JUSTIN LEONARD @ 14.5
5pts STEWART CINK @ 14.5

QUARTER-FINALS

10pts JUSTIN LEONARD @ 2.2 TO BEAT VIJAY SINGH
12pts HENRIK STENSON @ 1.7 TO BEAT WOODY AUSTIN