World Match Play / Tareq Quiroz / 20 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair's golf guru has some hints and tips on matchplay betting

The Accenture World Match Play is no place for the faint hearted. There will be ups and downs of monumental proportions throughout the five intense days of action from Tucson, Arizona. The key is to try and keep your head whilst all around you others are losing theirs.

We return to The Gallery GC at Dove Mountain in what promises to be the most open world event you will ever see. Last year produced a great match-up between an emerging Henrik Stenson and the rather inconsistent but brilliant Geoff Ogilvy. You can expect more of the same this week with the more than distinct likelihood that the final will contain at least one surprise name.

The magic of betting on match play golf is that you get plenty of different opportunities to back your judgement. The outright Winner market is bursting with tempting propositions but you also have the option of picking winners from each individual match.

Just looking through the opening 32 games I can see a few stand-out bets. To get the week off to a great start look no further than Scott Verplank to beat Nick O'Hern. Verplank is a tigerish competitor and just the kind of person you do not want to face in this format. O'Hern is living off a reputation of having beaten Tiger twice in this event and although he merits respect Verplank is a must bet at [1.82].

All matches during this event will be available in-running and the unusual nature of this form of golf means that you often get great odds during the round. It is important when you bet in-running that you don't overreact to the winning of a hole early on in the match. If the player who goes one up is the pre-match favourite then you often find the drop in price is inaccurate and I would advise where possible to lay these players immediately. However, this only really applies to the first seven or eight holes. After that, keep it tight and apply the method of backing the pre-match outsider if he is up in the match with six or seven holes to play.

Tournament betting also requires a different strategy to normal tour events and you should adopt a two-pronged approach. First, take a look for your fancied outsiders and get on pre-tournament. There is plenty of value in the outsiders and you can expect their odds to plummet if they make it through the first round. You are then able to reassess the situation and decide your next move based on all the results from the first round.

I could justifiably name several players at three figure odds that merit a wager but there are two that stand out from the rest. A man who I expect to go well this season is the talented Colombian Camilo Villegas. I fully expect him to get his first tour win this year and it may well be sooner rather than later. He has a great all round game and at current odds of around [160.0] he represents tremendous value.

My other choice is the ever flamboyant Ian Poulter. If he ever learns to let his golf do the talking then he could be a top ten player. His iron play is absolutely top draw and he will be a huge danger this week. Back him at [120.0] and I am sure it will be a profitable move.

For the second part of your betting strategy this week I suggest getting two or three players in mind before the first round that you would like on your side. Look at the players roughly between odds of [40.0] to [70.0] and make a note of the ones you most like. The chances are that these players will be playing some of the lesser ranked players and even if they make it through the first round you will not see a price drop so big that you will regret not having acted sooner. All assuming a certain market holding Tiger Woods makes it through his opening round of course! Once the round is complete reassess and back one of the players from your list now they have progressed. The first round is always the trickiest and you can be sure the best players will only get better.

Steve Stricker is the guy who tops my list this week at reasonable odds of around [40.0]. Number three in the world and a winner of this event in 2001 he will be a very tough opponent for anyone. If he gets past Chopra then get on the man from Wisconsin. My other fancy from the top echelons this week is Luke Donald. He has had a pretty lean time of late but showed signs of his best form last week with a third place finish and should be backed this week to continue in that manner.

Match play is a format of the game that some people don't like but for others it is the most entertaining. I fall somewhere in the middle of that as I do prefer the standard golf tournament but I am not adverse to the odd bit of match play.

There's no doubt that the tournament is an exciting proposition though and has focused betting minds. Roll on the Wednesday tee times!

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