WGC Accenture Matchplay: Tiger's back but is he ready, and is he value?

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty assesses the task in front of Woods as the golf world prepares for the long awaited comeback of the the great man.

As I predicted last week, the moment we've all been waiting for has finally arrived, and the greatest living sportsman will return to action on Wednesday at the Accenture World Matchplay. True to his character, Tiger Woods couldn't have picked a harder week to return from injury, as to win this event he will need to play six consecutive matches including a 36-hole final. That's potentially up to 126 holes, and plenty of pressure on his reconstructed knee.

Tiger is such a professional that you'd have to assume he wouldn't return at this stage unless he was fully fit. However, one might have said that about his last start at the US Open. There, returning from knee surgery, Woods was clearly playing through the pain barrier, limping and keeling over in pain after many shots. Though he won and produced what in my view was the most amazing golfing performance ever seen, its impossible to escape the conclusion that the exertions over 91 holes at Torrey Pines did this long-term injury no favours.

Over the longer term, doubts must remain over the knee. Ernie Els suffered the same injury in 2005 and has never been the same player since. He has admitted that he returned too quickly; after five months; and was playing in pain towards the end of rounds for months. Of course, that need not automatically apply to Woods, but it remains food for thought.

Leaving the injury aside, I'm in no doubt Woods is prepared golf-wise. His old mate and practice partner Mark O'Meara has said he's in fine form, and it seems that he may have been so for weeks. The comeback date was ultimately determined by the birth of his son, rather than the injury.

So how does this translate into betting on this week's WGC event; which is arguably the hardest of all to win because you have to retain form for the whole 126 holes? Any bad stretch of nine will usually result in elimination, which makes Tiger's record of three wins from ten tries more impressive than it may first appear. Nobody would put it past Woods, as he's already shown himself to be super-human, but a fourth title having not played competitively for eight months would be a truly phenomenal achievement.

The draw has done him no favours either. Australian Brendan Jones is unlikely to put up any great resistance in the first round; though it should be remembered that similar Aussie journeyman-types Peter O'Malley and Nick O'Hern (twice) have humbled him in this event. Assuming Woods does come through that, a mouth-watering clash against either Retief Goosen or Tim Clark awaits, neither of whom would be a pushover by any means.

In fact, if its Goosen, this could be billed as a grudge-match. The normally inoffensive Goosen made the most stupid comments of 2008 after Woods' amazing triumph at Torrey Pines, suggesting Tiger had exaggerated the injury for effect. I'll bet he regretted that one quickly, and I'll bet Tiger hasn't forgotten. Still, a dual US Open champion like Goosen could represent some value at above [3.0].

After that it gets harder to be specific about who he'll play in each round, because they depend on the early results, but the most intriguing match-up in round three would be against Rory McIlroy, the teenage prodigy widely tipped to inherit Woods' World No.1 crown. If the formbook stands up, round four could be against either former WGC and US Open champion Geoff Ogilvy, or another emerging superstar in Camilo Villegas. As for the semis, the likeliest opponents are superstar trio, (albeit fading), Phil Mickelson, Els or Vijay Singh.

In short then, it's going to be a very, very tough task to win, and I certainly wouldn't risk any cash on that outcome.

Instead, I'm going to follow the same betting strategy as I have in most previous years; one that has generally proved very successful. The plan is to lay Woods pre-tournament at around [6.4]; as an example lets say for 10 points. Then, I'll place an order in-running to back Woods for 6 points at significantly bigger odds than his starting price.

For instance, rather than the [1.3] starting price against Jones, I'd try and get [1.8]. If he loses, I'd be four points up from the initial lay. If Woods progresses, I'd add the profit to the running stake, and follow the same strategy in the next round, repeating this 'in-running accumulator' plan all the way through until he is either eliminated or wins the event.