WGC Accenture Matchplay Day One Tips: Take on the favourites at the Ritz-Carlton...

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty has selected five odds-against shots to provide a shock on the first day of the WGC Accenture...

Backing outsiders has been the name of the game ever since this event was created ten years ago, for two reasons. Firstly, 18-hole matchplay is the greatest leveller in golf, a point proven time and again in a variety of head-to-head events. Whereas over a 72-hole strokeplay event, class usually tells and players can come back from a poor stretch, here a bad run of holes will nearly always result in elimination. Likewise, there's nothing you can do if your opponent goes on a hot stretch with the putter. Secondly, odds are broadly formulated on the form shown over the longer-term in strokeplay events, which ignores the fact that matchplay is a refined art, which some players never get along with. So particularly on the first day of this six-round event, it's worth looking for outsiders to take on those vulnerable favourites. I like five such bets on the first day.


Start time: 14.36
3pts - Prayad Markaseng to beat Lee Westwood @ [3.0]

On the world rankings, this should be pretty one-sided, with Westwood 40 places ahead of his Thai opponent. And that probably doesn't do Lee justice, as Marksaeng's points have been earned at a much lower level and he has no form to speak of outside Asia. For that reason, a bet on Marksaeng can only be a small, speculative business, but Westwood's terrible tournament record makes it worth a crack. In eight attempts, Westwood has never progressed beyond the last-32, winning only four matches out of twelve. And at least in Marksaeng, we're backing a player in form, having finished 2nd on his latest start a fortnight ago in the Malaysian Open.

Start time: 15.14
6pts - Rod Pampling to beat Camilo Villegas @ [2.4]

Villegas may be one of the game's 'Next Big Things', but recent efforts show that he is far from consistent. Two of his last three starts have resulted in missed cuts, including a particularly error-strewn affair in Australia last week. The Colombian now returns to the US, to play on significantly slower greens, in a tournament where he lost in the first round on his debut last year. In short, he's vulnerable.

Pampling by comparison has played well at Dove Mountain, winning three of his five matches on the course over the past two years. Last year, he looked nailed on to progress to the quarter-finals before an amazing comeback from Vijay Singh. I'd rather have his reliable, consistent game in matchplay than Villegas' erratic brilliance, especially at decent odds-against. For it seems that, on recent form at any rate, Pampling will be gifted at least a couple of holes by his opponent's mistakes.


Start time: 15.33
5pts - Matthew Goggin to beat Kenny Perry @ [2.4]

Another vulnerable looking favourite must be veteran Kenny Perry, who has won just three of his nine previous matches in the event. As last year's strange schedule showed - where he missed majors to focus on Ryder Cup qualification - Perry is not always one to focus too hard on the events he's less likely to win. And at the age of 49, its unlikely that he's going to emerge as winner after six rounds this week. Only two of the previous ten champions were over 35.

His opponent is making his Matchplay debut, but has been in decent form for several months now. And in contrast to Perry, Goggin will be relishing this opportunity to earn plenty of cash and ranking points that could transform his position in the game.


Start time: 17.55
5pts - Hunter Mahan to beat Mike Weir @ [2.16]

No European will be in any doubt of Mahan's matchplay prowess, after this up and coming American starred in the Ryder Cup. With youth on his side, I like Mahan as a decent outside bet in this week's marathon, and he is strongly fancied to take care of Mike Weir in the opening round.

Weir has an ordinary record in the event, never reaching the last eight and winning just six out of 14 matches in his eight attempts. Moreover, since the event moved to Dove Mountain a couple of years ago, the Canadian has lost in the opening round both times. His form over the weekend must be of grave concern to supporters too, with a stellar run brought to an abrupt halt with a miserable 72nd place on one of his favourite courses, Riviera.


Start time: 19.21
4pts - Charl Schwartzel to beat Sergio Garcia @ [2.82]

Whatever his status as World No.2, and outstanding record in pairs formats at the Ryder Cup, Garcia has a very ordinary record in 18-hole matchplay singles. In this event, his record is eight wins from 15 matches, and the Spaniard has never reached the quarter-finals. A further worry is that Sergio's putting woes appeared to have returned on recent starts. In this format, holding one's nerve over those critical five-footers is imperative.

He must be worth taking on at a decent price with an in-form opponent. Schwartzel is making his tournament debut, but has been widely tipped to achieve big things in the game since emerging as a teenager. The South African has missed only one of his last 14 cuts, winning the Madrid Masters and registering six top-10s and ten top-25s during that period, including second place on his latest start. For me, Schwartzel still makes too many silly mistakes, but he is a serious player and if he cuts those mistakes out tomorrow, Garcia could be there for the taking.