Whatever happens this week, Paul Krishnamurty's weekly trading column is ensured of a profitable 2012. Can he find that elusive big-priced winner just in time for Christmas?
As we take stock entering the final golfing week of 2012, it is nice to report that, while we haven't managed to locate any triple-figure priced winners in 2012, this weekly trading plan is guaranteed at least 25 units profit. If you can make a profit without actually backing winners, you must be doing something right. As usual, there are plenty of 'what ifs', most memorably Marcus Fraser losing a play-off for the BMW International Open or both John Mallinger and Robert Garrigus challenging down the stretch at the Humana Challenge. No doubt if we keep knocking on the door, a winner will come and who knows, maybe we'll get two in swift succession.
This statistical round-up is, of course, slightly premature because we still have a chance to finish the year in style at the Alfred Dunhill Championship. All the evidence from this tournament's history at Leopard Creek GC suggests this is another of those end of season events where at least two thirds of the field can be written off. Most simply aren't good enough and the requirements of this course mean short-hitters may as well forget it.
Normally the problem in such scenarios is finding anyone within our price range, but this time I've identified three that very much fit our purposes. The common thread amongst them all is potential. Although none are yet household names by any means, I'm expecting them all to make an impact in 2013. All are at least fairly long off the tee.
First up, 20 year-old Argentinian Emeliano Grillo's power game has caught my eye lately, particularly when leading the Perth International for a long way before finishing fifth. Another decent effort was a top-25 finish in the Italian Open, which Steve Rawlings regards as offering a useful form line with Leopard Creek. Grillo looks a fine prospect, potentially capable of following in the footsteps of his compatriots Eduardo Romero and Angel Cabrera. Significantly given the importance of long holes to scoring at Leopard Creek, Grillo ranks a very respectable 21st for par-five performance during his rookie season.
Of this year's batch of graduates from the Challenge Tour, three are fancied to settle in quickly at the higher level. One is prolific winner Kristoffer Broberg, about whom the market is already well aware of. Another is Joachim B Hansen, who was tipped for last week's 36-hole non-event and finally there's big-hitting Norwegian Espen Kofstad. Broberg may have won more titles, but that may well prove to just be a hot streak and his closest rivals arguably hold as much potential and are much bigger prices.
A positive omen regarding these Scandinavian youngsters can be found in the 2010 result, when similarly profiled Thorbjorn Olesen finished second on one of his earliest main tour starts. Time will only tell whether they're up to the same standard, but for now they should be regarded as in-form, improving players available at enormous odds.
The trading plan is to stake four units on our trio, then place two in-running lay orders on each at 12.011/1 and then 3.02/1. If just one player hits the first target, we'll make 11 units profit with plenty of scope for more.
Updated 2012 Stats: +29 units