Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Tips: Back Sweden for the win

Rob Furber
14 May 2022
5:00 min read

Turin's PalaOlimpico is the venue for tonight's ESC 2022 grand final

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The Outright market remains in thrall to the notion Ukraine is going to win this evening's Eurovision grand final due to an avalanche of good will, but Rob Furber is predicting a different outcome...

"Sweden's Cornelia Jakobs has a great shot at taking home the Eurovision trophy tonight, which would see her nation draw level with Ireland as the winning most ESC nation in history with seven wins."

Back Sweden to win @ 11.521/2 or better

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine back in February, traders have had to get their heads around what impact this might have on the outcome of tonight's Eurovision grand final.

Last night saw the jury performances responsible for 50% of the vote and it seems unlikely that many music professionals would have been putting Kalush Orchestra's 'Stefania' at the top of their rankings, if assessing this year's 25 grand final songs objectively, which is their duty.

Specifically, the five jury members that sit in each of the 40 participating countries are asked to assess:

vocal capacity
the performance on stage
the composition and originality of the song
the overall impression by the act

'Stefania' is a divisive entry and even if we add in some degree of 'good will' inflation, Ukraine could easily find itself lagging too far behind during the jury points reveal which, crucially, is announced first during this evening's results sequence.

It tends to pay to think about which nations are going to be at the top of the scoreboard during the jury points reveal as their prices will inevitably come in during 'live-in-running' trading on Betfair tonight, so there is scope for a back-to-lay approach.

Ryder to top jury vote?

This could easily include the UK, with a good few experts even predicting 'Space Man' topping the jury vote. Sam Ryder finds himself in a run of three solo males, from 21 to 23, all trying to impress with falsettos.

He has the chance to earn the country its best result since Jade Even finished fifth in 2009 with 'It's My Time'. However, the televote side of the equation is the big concern and could mean Sam has to settle for a Top 5 or Top 10 finish.

Looking at the bigger picture of jury score and televote score combined, it looks advantage Ochman, for Poland, singing 'River' from the 23 slot.

Pol-dark horse

If you look back to ESC 2016, the Polish entry that year was Michal Szpak with the ballad 'Color Of Your Life'. Drawn 12 in the grand final, it wasn't considered among that year's strongest songs, bombed with the juries, awarded a meagre 7pts, and yet Poland did incredibly well on the televote earning 222pts which jettisoned the country to eighth place overall.

This was partly down to the Polish diaspora getting behind Szpak across Europe and if they can get behind him they can certainly get behind the classically-trained Ochman.

Poland also has the potential to have finished among the top 4 during last night's jury performance as Ochman really smashed it out the ballpark with his incredible vocal range, so Poland looks a solid Top 5 contender.

Host nation Italy, drawn in 9, looks cooked, with perceived televote big hitter Spain immediately following it in 10. Italy will do well on the jury side but similar to the UK does not look like earning a big enough televote to get in contention for the win.

Holding all the aces

Sweden's Cornelia Jakobs has a great shot at taking home the Eurovision trophy tonight, which would see her nation draw level with Ireland as the winning most ESC nation in history with seven wins.

The anthemic 'Hold Me Closer' is the strongest song this year and has been doing great business on iTunes since it was seen for the first time by tv viewers during Thursday night's second semi-final.

Not only that but Cornelia possesses true star quality and totally owns the live performance, with the added televote advantage of performing the song from the sweet spot of 20 in the running order.

Spain, as the provider of this year's biggest banger, with a polished stage show and impressive choreo courtesy of professional dancer Chanel, should do good business on the televote.

Given Cyprus's Eleni Foureira was only able to finish fifth on the jury rankings with the iconic 'Fuego' in 2018 tells you the uphill struggle 'SloMo' faces to win.

In many ways Chanel's performance is derivative of Foureira's. The song feels weaker, particularly in the chorus, and the choreo looks cheaper, so a potential jury shortfall could hurt Spain.

Having a second half draw in the grand final looks like also aiding Greece which is in the 17 slot. A tv ad break beforehand provides a handy lead in, and Amanda Tenfjord offers up one of the most impactful performances of the year with 'Die Together' which has a stamp of quality about it.

Despite its earlier draw in 11, Netherlands is another of this year's class acts and along with Greece looks a solid Top 10 prospect.