Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Tips: Back Greece for the win

Rob Furber
10 May 2022
4:00 min read

Turin is the venue for tonight's first semi-final of Eurovision 2022

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Who's heading to the ESC grand final and who's heading home? Rob Furber offers his best bets for semi-final one including an alternative to favourite Ukraine for the win...

"With an ideal late running order slot in 15, Greece looks the value to topple Ukraine for the semi one win. 'Die Together' resonates live courtesy of some inspired, close-up camera work and Dali-esque visuals, conceived by veteran stage hand Fokas Evangelinos."

Back Greece to win semi-final 1 @ 5.69/2 or better

Among the Specials trading fraternity, all eyes will be fixed on Turin this evening and the first semi-final of ESC 2022.

The Outright market has maintained total belief Ukraine's Kalush Orchestra can follow in Jamala's footsteps in 2016 and land what would be a second ESC win for the war-torn nation in the last seven years, which inevitably sees it trading very short on Betfair, around 1.43, to take the semi win tonight.

If it's going to win the entire competition then winning the first semi-final must be a shoe-in, Ukraine backers believe. But there remain significant doubts it will play out like this.

A running order of 6 is not ideal and Ukraine hasn't particularly impressed during the rehearsal period. While it should do decent business on the televote tonight, the jury side of the equation looks less secure.

Saturday's grand final, when vast swathes of mainland Europe tune in, could see a greater engagement in the Ukraine narrative among viewers. But on a Tuesday evening the televote support for Ukraine also feels more uncertain.

When the ten qualifiers are revealed one by one on screen tonight, it is always a fraught occasion for ESC traders watching on from behind their living room sofas.

The semi-final value often lies in finding a nation or two trading at very short qualification odds on Betfair you correctly identify as missing the cut.

Dance disaster?

A couple I think are worth considering taking on are Albania and Austria.

Ronela Hajati's 'Sekret' is a bang average Balkan banger which opens semi one, while Austria's DJ-led house tune, 'Halo', performed by Lum!x feat. Pia Maria, could be straight out of the Aqua back catalogue.

Albania might be saved by its diaspora residing in countries such as Greece, Switzerland and Italy - all of whom are voting in semi one - but anything around 1.45 looks far too short for an entry that should be falling well down on the jury side.

The recent history of ESC semi-finals is littered with dance music casualties. A guy behind the decks and a lead singer trying to sell anything 'disco' is usually a recipe for disaster on the Eurovision stage, and jury anathema, so Austria looks another vulnerable odds-on shot.

Iceland, meanwhile, could end up potentially over-priced for qualification this evening, if its price drifts beyond 3.0. It's a lilting, country track, beautifully staged, which conjures memories of The Common Linnets, runners-up in 2014.

'Með Hækkandi Sól', performed by Systur - 3 Icelandic sisters - has a warm, Ready Brek glow about it, and a sense of timeless quality.

download-4 copy.jpg

Girl power

The fairer sex is definitely in charge of semi 1 this year and there are some quality solo female entries to the fore including Portugal, Netherlands and Greece.

'De Diepte' performed by S10, real name Stien den Hollander, exudes musical artistry. She nails a stellar vocal, the last 30 seconds of the song quite moving as her voice starts to crack. Despite the Dutch lyrics, it packs an emotional punch and Netherlands is definitely one to consider for a top 3 finish.

Portugal's Maro delivers a classy and intimate performance on the b-stage with her and her female backing singers forming a circle to harmonize the chorus of the bewitching 'Saudade, saudade'.

She, too, has an exquisite voice, it's an entry with real USP, and it is firmly in the Top 3 picture.

With an ideal late running order slot in 15, Greece looks the value to topple Ukraine for the semi one win. 'Die Together' resonates live courtesy of some inspired, close-up camera work and Dali-esque visuals, conceived by veteran stage hand Fokas Evangelinos.

Amanda Tjenford's a cappella start is highly impactful and immediately grabs the viewer's attention. Jurors should be rating this one highly and that late r.o. will be a boost to the Greek televote.

Wolf in sheep's clothing

Norway could be one to ignite the excitement of UK punters tonight. 'Give That Wolf A Banana' by Subwoolfer, who perform in yellow wolf heads and black shades, will be a lot of people's idea of classic Eurovision. It may ultimately fall down on the jury side but that may not stop its price plunging across the various Betfair ESC markets.

Other ones to look out for include Switzerland's answer to Louis Armstrong, Marius Bear, and Moldova's returning Zdob si Zdub, who last competed back in 2011, and offer up the fun, toe-tapper 'Trenulețul', which is perfect for any Eurovision-themed hoedowns planned across the Home Counties this evening.