Eurovision 2023: How to profit from betting on Saturday's final

• Peter's guide to betting on Saturday night's final

• He breaks down the evening into key phases for bettors

• Winner market highly liquid and profitable

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The perfect trading event

The Eurovision Song Contest is not only a celebration of music and culture but a prime opportunity for betting and trading on the Befair Exchange.

It may sound odd to trade the Eurovision song contest, but since 2006 I've been active in each market. Its appeal comes from the fact that each contestant's chances are emotionally driven, making it perfect for trading.

In 2022, nearly £10m was placed on the contest, making it a highly liquid and profitable market. So let's discuss the Eurovision market's strategies, phases, and patterns to help you make informed betting and trading decisions for this 'highlight' of the music year.

Stay ahead of curve in the build-up

The pre-voting phase of the Eurovision market is dominated by news flow, which leads to a common theme or country that tends to drive the market. There is no particular mathematical model to price a market like this, so you have to rely on other factors.

Understanding the popular opinion and emotions of the market during this phase is crucial in determining the odds and placing bets or trades. The market reacts to news, hype, and narratives leading up to the contest, so keeping an eye on social media, forums, and news outlets can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Because it's difficult to price, it's tough to identify mispricing, which means it's brilliant for trading. As the news ebbs and flows and shapes popular opinion, you can trade in and out and exploit overreaction to individual contestants.

Sweden too short, UK too high?

Sweden's price has already crashed from a high of 15.014/1 to sub 1.51/2, which looks too short at this stage.

The UK's price has gone in the opposite direction, reversing from a low of 8.07/1 to 250.00249/1. Again, the contest has yet to start in earnest. So there is still plenty to play for.

Much depends on the next couple of phases of the competition.

Hit right notes with quick trades

The night of the competition is divided into two key areas - the performances and the voting.

During the performance period, the Betfair Exchange market reacts to the quality of each country's song and the overall reception. Good performances result in a pull in the price, while bad performances result in a drift out.

This is where you can make quick trades based on the market's reaction to a performance. This is the period of the contest that is easiest to trade, as you are making a singular trade on a contestant's performance.

You can trade in and out at relatively low risk during this phase.

How the voting works

Understanding the voting structure of the Eurovision contest is vital in making informed bets and trades.

Before 1997, all voting was done by juries in each country, leading to biased and unpredictable results. However, after 2004, televoting was given more dominance in the competition, leading to more predictable results.

The televoting and country jury votes are now split equally, with the popular opinion and theme of the competition influencing the televoting patterns.

Political biases, cultural differences, and neighbouring country voting have historically skewed the results. The introduction of more former-Eastern bloc countries and the split voting system have made the competition more predictable but still subject to some biases.

Understanding these patterns can help you make more informed trades and predict the winner.

The jury votes are often very different from the audience, so this can be a real pivot point in the contest and odds.

In 2022, Ukraine was predicted to win the Eurovision Song Contest due to a strong narrative in the press.

As the jury votes were announced, it was clear that many countries had yet to award Ukraine the maximum points.

When the Netherlands cast 12 points to Greece, Ukraine's price shot out from 1.331/3, and when Malta awarded the infamous 'nul point' their price peaked at a high of 3.4549/20.

As we headed towards the public vote, however, the price returned to its expected path, and 10 minutes later, Ukraine were at 1.011/100 to win.

Tips for profitable trading

In summary, trading the Eurovision winner market can be highly profitable, but it requires some knowledge and understanding. Here are some tips and tricks to help you make profitable trades:

1. Keep an eye on news flow and social media leading up to the final stages of the contest to understand popular opinions and emotions driving the market.

2. Watch the performances and make quick trades based on the market's reaction.

3. Understand the voting structure and patterns of the Eurovision Contest to make more informed trades.

4. When jury votes are cast, they will significantly affect the market, especially if there is a short-priced favourite.

5. Public voting is done in a block at the end, so don't get caught out. You should be out of all your positions by then.

The Eurovision Song Contest is a celebration of music and culture and the winner market is highly liquid and profitable for betting and trading. Understanding the phases, patterns, and voting structure of the market can help you profit from it.

Watch Eurovision...Only Bettor here

Eurovision superfan Kevin Hatchard hosts this special podcast with the help of specials betting expert Rob Furber and Betfair's own Sam Rosbottom. Watch below.