Eurovision Song Contest 2022 Tips: Why you should back Sweden to win

These are unprecedented times for Eurovision Song Contest traders and we are in uncharted territory following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The logic being applied is that Ukraine's fight for freedom on behalf of all of Europe will see a massive groundswell of support for it at the Contest. Music will be secondary and everyone will be voting for Ukraine as a mark of sympathy, admiration and defiance.

You get the distinct impression people who don't usually bet on Eurovision are piling their cash down on Ukraine. It's free money, right? Ukraine is surely going to win by a landslide...? It's by no means that simple.

Orchestral manoeuvres in the dark

Firstly, the ESC final doesn't take place until May 14 and so much can change between now and then. A peace deal might have been brokered and if the invasion is still ongoing there would have to remain serious doubts regarding Kalush Orchestra's participation.

Some of the band members have either been conscripted or are on the ground in the country working as volunteers, and plans are being made for a 'live-on-tape' performance being recorded in case they are unable to travel to Turin.

Even if the war is still raging and Ukraine pulls in a record televote, that is only 50% of the voting equation. Jury members, who are music professionals, are responsible for the other 50% and are requested to objectively assess the entries. Kalush Orchestra's 'Stefania' is by no means one of the year's stand out songs.

Ukraine backers might be hopeful for a degree of 'good will inflation' to also aid its jury points haul but even then, in a year in which there looks to be plenty of potential jury bait floating about, it will be doing very well to break into the top ten on the jury side.

Millions of people across Europe are still going to be watching ESC as a music competition and voting for countries they think have brought the best songs.

As we saw last year with Australia, if Ukraine does have to resort to a 'live-on-tape' performance, this is not the ideal platform to show an entry in its best light. The EBU also has plenty of tricks up its sleeve regarding the grand final running order.

Given all of the doubts firmly in play, a current price on Betfair of 2.56 for Ukraine to win ESC 2022 looks fanciful. That's not to say it won't go shorter but backers could very easily be throwing their money away.

Host with the most?

Host nation Italy is bringing a highly competent, native language ballad in 'Brividi' performed by Mahmood and Blanco, which sees it trading as a solid second favourite around 5.0 on Betfair. It has drawn a running order of 9 in the grand final which looks a setback to its televote, as much as the song has solid jury appeal.

No song has won ESC from a single figure draw since the televote-only era, and Turkey's win in 2003 from the 4 slot. Italy backers will point to past winners including Sweden drawn 10 in 2015, Austria in 2014 and Portugal in 2017, both drawn 11, and Netherlands drawn 12 in 2019.

Significantly, they all had exposure in their respective semi-finals, and won their semi-finals, something Italy, an automatic qualifier to the grand final as host, will not have the luxury of. And as a high brow, Italian language, male duet, it's not the most easily accessible song on first listen.

That running order also means, should either or both of the semi-final winners draw first half in the grand final, they will very likely be positioned in 11 and/or 13, which would potentially throw some shade on Italy.

Jakobs' cracker

At this point in the ESC season we are guessing in most instances regarding the critical aspect of how entries are going to be staged in Turin. Among the live performances we have seen and staging we know we are going to get, more or less, the leader of the pack is undoubtedly Sweden.

Sweden last won the Contest in 2015 with Mans Zelmerlow's 'Heroes', and is seeking to draw level with Ireland as the winning-most ESC nation in history with seven wins.

Unlike the usual sort of synthetic, factory-made Swedish entries, Cornelia Jakobs' 'Hold Me Closer' has originality and authenticity in spades and she truly owns the performance. Lyrically, it is superb, and the bare-footed Cornelia conveys the story of a break-up in a compelling manner.

Given the clear doubts over the front two in the market, Sweden definitely merits backing at 8.0 or bigger on Betfair.

This is an exceptional Eurovision year in more ways than one. A favourite due to war, a host nation and defending champion in Italy trading as second favourite, despite seeking to become the first back-to-back winner since Ireland's three-peat in 1992-1994 and, also going against the grain, the UK is strongly-fancied and currently trades as fourth favourite around the 17.5 mark on Betfair.

Sam Ryder's 'Space Man' has been well-received because it is a clear step up on lamentable UK efforts in recent years. Sam is a TikTok music sensation which also means he is inexperienced performing on a big stage.

UK backers think Sam's falsetto and a radio-friendly pop song add up to potential jury love. His likeable demeanour and the staging potential for a song encompassing space imagery are also cited as televote positives.

A lot will need to coalesce to a very high level in Turin for the UK entry to be competitive and while the market appears to be over-rating its chance, the UK price may yet go shorter driven by patriotic money.

There are plenty of quality songs in studio form this year including Greece, Poland and Netherlands.

Big, fat Greek price

Greece's song, an atmospheric ballad called 'Die Together' sung by Amanda Tenfjord, has the feel of a track tailormade for an evocative live performance.

It has an intentionally sparse production at song start, a vocoder effect used to enhance Amanda's vocal, before building to a key change and midtempo climax. With veteran stage hand Fokas Evangelinos tasked with the visuals, and an artistic presentation being promised, Greece looks worth chancing e/w at 18-1 with Betfair.

Poland's Krystian Ochman underwhelmed many people when winning the Polish national final with 'River'. He is a superb, classically-trained live singer, and if he delivers a more engaging performance with requisite staging, Poland could easily move up to contender status.

Netherlands won ESC as recently as 2019 and has unearthed another top notch entry in 'De diepte', a native language ballad which looks sure to be elevated live by the brilliant S10, aka, Stien den Hollander. Juries should lap this one up, but the quite sharp-edged Dutch language may prove a barrier for it to fully fly on the televote.

Among the potential televote big hitters are Norway and Spain. Subwoolfer for Norway will bring the 'fun' to this year's Contest with their track 'Give That Wolf A Banana'. It should go down a storm with tv viewers; juries are likely to be less impressed.

Spain offers this year's Contest its biggest 'banger' with Chanel's 'SloMo'. It looks like Chanel has been watching videos of Cyprus's 2018 runner-up 'Fuego' as the choreo is straight out of the Eleni Foureira playbook. Again, the issue could be a lack of jury support.

Vintage Port

Scouring through this year's outsiders, the most interesting dark horse could be Portugal. Maro's 'Saudade, saudade' is a bewitching tune that draws you in from its opening chords.

Maro is a charming performer with a captivatingly pure, live vocal. She didn't get the presentation right when first seen in the Portuguese semi-final, but it improved come the final when Maro was joined on stage by four of her female backing vocalists.

It requires greater intimacy and close-up camera work to fully flourish. In the hope the Portuguese staging team find the magic ingredients in Turin, it looks worth a speculative e/w bet at 50-1 with Betfair.

There are a number of interesting runners among the remainder of the field. Belgium's Jeremie Makiese is an accomplished live performer and his track, 'Miss You', which starts out sounding like a modern Bond theme before transforming into an R&B track vaguely reminiscent of Justin Timberlake, is worthy of merit.

Music fans will spot The Rasmus representing Finland with the soft rock track 'Jezebel'. Best known for the 2003 global hit 'In The Shadows', they are sure to deliver a professional stage show.

There are likely to be other entries that emerge from the pack during rehearsals. ESC traders are tasked with the perennial guessing game of which countries are going to impress in Turin, because if you can find them they will offer lucrative trading opportunities.

The greatest imponderable is, what the pervading sentiment will be across Europe come May 14. As of now you would think introspective songs would likely win out over uptempo, party tunes, but a lot can change between now and the grand final.

There is still plenty to play for among the 40 competing countries, and only rehearsals will tell us more.