Joe Burrow is expecting big things this season but the Bengals need to start better than usual - they're 2-4 in the Burrow era on opening day and 9-12-1 in September since 2020, while the
Bucs are fast starters at 9-3 in September over the last three seasons.
Baker Mayfield has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in season openers with Tampa Bay so he should hit the ground running and a win on the road wouldn't surprise me. But this looks a good game for a Bet Builder to take advantage of the Betfair Bet Boost offer to get an extra 50% on your winnings.
With two quality quarterbacks like these two and an array of receiving talent led by Ja'Marr Chase and including Tee Higgins and Emeka Egbuka, passing touchdowns looks the best bet to start the season here.
Back Burrow 3+, Mayfield 2+ passing TDs, Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD
A tough start for Josh Allen as he looks to finally lead Buffalo to the Super Bowl under new head coach Joe Brady, as he's 0-4 in Houston and was sacked a whopping eight times and picked off twice by the Texans defence last November. Many of Houston's fearsome defence, which was second only to Seattle's, returns.
CJ Stroud still concerns me at QB for Houston, but signing David Montgomery will help generate a run game - Buffalo's run game was the best in the league last year so this could be a spot of old fashioned trench warfare with both sides leaning on the ground game. Since it's week one I'll back Houston for the minor upset in a defensive armwrestle.
Back Texans win and under 44.5 total points
Chicago averaged 25.9 points a game last season and head coach Ben Johnson is looking to make them even more explosive. So expect another big year for Caleb Williams, starting with a win in Carolina where the Bears are road favourites for just the second time in five years.
The Panthers improved at the back end of last season and impressed in pre-season, but Chicago's ball-hawking defence is a tough starter for Bryce Young, especially if RB Jonathan Brooks isn't there to give him a run game. The Bears are missing some receivers but they should still have enough to inflict a five straight opening day defeat on Carolina.
Back Bears to win -6.5 on the handicap
Not exactly a must-watch this one as not much is expected from either of these this season, but there's more upsdies to Vegas right now. Miami QB Malik Willis should have a decent game in terms of rushing yards but he's got precious little around him either in protection or receiving options.
Both running back Ashton Jeanty and De'Von Achane should provide most of the offensive output but don't expect too many fancy big plays. Instead, back the Raiders to grind out quite an ugly victory against a Miami side set for a long season of struggle.
Back Raiders -4.5 and under 38.5 points
Expect a bounce back from Dan Campbell's Lions this season, starting with a home win in the opener, but it won't be a walkover as Tyler Shough looked like the man for the Saints as they won five of their last eight to end last season on a high.
Shough should be able to find receiver Chris Olave at will given Detroit's depleted secondary, but in what could turn into a shootout he won't be able to keep pace with Jared Goff, who's had great success against zone defence, and still has Amon-Ra St Brown to throw to and Jahmyr Gibbs to hand the ball off to.
Detroit are 14-4 against the spread in September under Campbell while the Saints have lost six straight in the opening month of the season
Back Goff 3+ passing TDs, St Brown anytime TD and Gibbs 80+ rush yards
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Minnesota have won four of the last five at home against Green Bay and they're favourites to add another as Kyler Murray makes his Vikings debut hoping to turn his career around. His early connection with star receiver Justin Jefferson has been promising so expect a big game from JJ.
The Packers lost five straight games to end last season and they start this campaign still without Micah Parsons, giving Murray even more breathing space to use his superb running ability, and also without star rusher Josh Jacobs so Jordan Love will have to shoulder the offensive burden with his arm.
Overall though there's a few too many holes and questions marks right now with Green Bay so we'll take the hosts on the moneyline along with a Jefferson score and a few rushing yards for the electric Murray in a Bet Builder.
Back Vikings win, Jefferson TD and Murray over 24.5 rushing yards